The following is an extract from free newsletters of the Paulick Report:

“The combination of an overall diminished horse supply and regional tracks being less receptive to horses shipping off their grounds has impacted entries for us so far this month,” said Scott Lishia, director of racing at Penn National Racecourse. “As an added incentive to bolster field size, effective in April 16 race card, any dirt race with seven or more starters will carry an owner’s bonus of [US]$500 for each horse.”

This is just another scenario emblematic of the shrinkage of the industry’s unmitigated annual decline. Against the backdrop of a lack of investment in the North, Central, and South-American breeding industry, racing secretaries and other administrators in the various diminishing jurisdictions across the continents have to resort to creative ways to make the promotion of live thoroughbred racing a going concern in the Pan American region.

The 152nd staging of the Kentucky Derby was held on Saturday, May 2, and in an extraordinary historic turn of events, Cherie Devaux became the first female trainer to saddle a winner. Moderately fancied at 23-1, Golden Tempo came from last at the top of the home stretch to score by a nose over much better fancied
Renegade (4-1). In an incredibly unlikely occurrence, the winner, by the margin of a nose, was ridden by Jose Ortiz, and his sibling, Irad, partnered the runner-up.

Newsworthy as those individuals’ achievements are, the post-race Derby speech by William “Bill” C Carstanjen is equally so. In his capacity, the CEO revealed that the first quarter of 2026 was the best for Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) as the export of products reached US$50 million.

Against the backdrop of concerning statistics from the regulatory United States Jockey Club, the average price of yearlings has seen a steep annual increase, which would account for Kentucky’s inflated financial performance. As to whether or not this will be the case for the foreseeable future, with the prospect of this being a trend, is questionable in the prevailing environment.

Congratulations to Carstanjen on the achievement; it was worth mentioning. It is difficult to believe that he believes Kentucky exists in isolation and that its current financial success has a chance of being sustainable in the medium and long term.

The horse racing industry in North America is facing an existential threat, but clearly, for CDI, it is further away than for all other promoters.The trajectory suggests that, given the horse population decline, in another decade, the promoters in New York, Kentucky, and Florida will be the locations in control of live horse racing, but will have no problems in facilitating simulcast, and one hopes it will be at affordable rates for all potential points of sales around the globe.

The fact of the matter is that in the jurisdictions named above, their breeding industries have been viable for decades, with a traditionally global footprint as well. However, nothing that I am aware of suggests that there is any concerted effort to attract investment to arrest and reverse the 60 per cent 35-year decline in registered foals. I get a sense the operatives in the North American breeding industry have thrown their collective hands to the heavens in frustration and apathy.

To underscore the ever-decreasing lack of support for horse racing, the US pari-mutuel handle of US$9.6 billion in 1992, with 255 million inhabitants, was only US$10.35 billion in 2025, although the US population stood at 341.8 million. This is symptomatic of horse racing’s lack of mass or universal appeal in the United States, which can be addressed, but ideas are lacking, as well as the willingness to acknowledge the outcome of inaction. Meanwhile, the industry in the other continents is flourishing.

The question to be answered is whether or not the racing product, delivered in an unclassified, complicated claiming US system can expand the customer base. Claiming has been operational for 96 years in the US and predictably for 33 years in Jamaica and has not delivered a financially viable outcome. It may be a case of too little too late, but the US Jockey Club, as of October 2025, has moved to the classification of the horse population, which is effectively a handicap system.

As a career marketer, I can advise that a key indicator of predictable product failure is its inability to improve depth and reach on a timely basis in maximising the advantage of population growth to expand market share. In all respects, the American racing product claiming system model provably meets the criteria for lack of economic viability. The absolute resistance to change is emblematic of the all-pervasive, harmful knowledge deficit in the local racing industry.