GRUPO Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP), operator of Jamaica’s two main airports, is projecting a full recovery in airline seat capacity for the upcoming winter tourist season, although uncertainty remains over passenger demand.

“When we see the slots and all the capacity that is today planned for the winter, we are seeing, at least in terms of seats, a full recovery for November and December and all the winter season for Jamaica,” GAP CEO Raúl Revuelta said during GAP’s July 15 earnings call.

The GAP CEO’s comments come against the backdrop of a 26.7 per cent decline in passenger traffic at Sangster International Airport (SIA) during the first six months of 2026. The airport handled 1.91 million passengers, 694,300 fewer than a year earlier, while airline seat capacity for July remained 20 per cent below July 2025.

The recovery in airline seat capacity in the upcoming winter will be supported by new non-stop flights from Toronto, Ottawa and Hamilton by Porter Airlines — the third largest airline from Canada behind Air Canada and WestJet. SIA also welcomed a new route from Medellín, Colombia, in June operated by Wingo, the low-cost airline owned by Copa Holdings.

SIA handles approximately 70 per cent of Jamaica’s air traffic and is the main gateway to the tourism corridor stretching from Ocho Rios to Negril.

“It will be interesting to see how the demand reacts, but at least in terms of the offer, we are seeing almost a full recovery for the end of the year in terms of seat capacity,” Revuelta said.

Several hotels closed after Hurricane Melissa have since reopened, increasing the number of rooms available to visitors. Two Royalton properties in Negril are scheduled to reopen on August 25, followed by another two on September 15. Three Sandals resorts are expected to reopen between November and December, while Bahia Principe Grand Jamaica is scheduled to resume operations on December 1. Hyatt Hotels Corporation, however, has pushed the reopening of eight all-inclusive resorts to 2027.

The decline in passenger traffic at Sangster International was reflected in the earnings of airport operator MBJ Airports Limited. Revenue fell 25 per cent to MXN$610.17 million (US$35.06 million) during the second quarter ended June 30, down from MXN$814.77 million a year earlier.

Operating income declined 36 per cent to MXN$195.61 million, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell 29 per cent to MXN$278.86 million (US$16.02 million).

Across GAP’s Jamaican operations, which also include Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA), aeronautical revenue declined 18 per cent while non-aeronautical revenue fell 54 per cent during the quarter. Concession fees declined 21 per cent due to lower revenue, but spending on improvements to concession assets contributed to a nine per cent increase in operating expenses.

“We will not have the effect of the Melissa hurricane in the coming year. But at least what we are seeing on the trend of the recovery of hotels capacity in Jamaica is that for the end of this year, everything is going to be normalised. So, in general terms, we think that the coming year will be positive,” the GAP CEO said regarding trends heading into 2027.

Although GAP has cut its projected 2026 capital expenditure budget from MXN$13.5 billion to MXN$12 billion, it intends to spend MXN$2 billion (US$114.41 million) on the Jamaican airports as part of its master development programme.

For the overall six-month period, MBJ’s total revenue is down 30 per cent to MXN$1.18 billion with operating income down 37 per cent to MXN$408.52 million. EBITDA for the period declined 30 per cent to MXN$574.45 million (US$32.86 million).

Aeronautical revenue for Jamaican airports declined 22 per cent for the six month period while non-aeronautical revenue dipped 21 per cent over the same time frame. Aeronautical revenue is income derived from airlines using the airport while non-aeronautical revenue is income derived from services like rental of airport space for stores inside the airport, parking and other businesses operating outside the airport.

NMIA fared better than SIA, handling 851,000 passengers during the first half of 2026. This represented a 3.5 per cent decline, or 30,700 fewer passengers than a year earlier. The reduction was attributed to fewer arrivals from some markets in the United States, Jamaica’s largest visitor source market.

Based on recent trends, GAP now expects passenger traffic across its airport network to range from a three per cent decline to no growth in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of two-to-five per cent growth. FIFA World Cup matches hosted in Guadalajara boosted traffic at that airport during June, but softer business and leisure travel affected several of GAP’s other airports.

“We believe that a significant portion of the headwinds affecting traffic is temporary. Although the pace of normalisation will vary by market, our revised guidance does not assume an immediate or complete recovery,” the GAP CEO explained.

GAP’s consolidated revenue for the second quarter was up four per cent to MXN$11.29 billion with consolidated net profit up nine per cent to MXN$2.89 billion due to lower taxes and operating expenses.

For the overall six-month period, consolidated revenue increased three per cent to MXN$22.66 billion with consolidated net profit up 13 per cent to MXN$6.21 billion due to a reduction in operating expenses.

GAP’s share price is down 18 per cent year-to-date to US$217.49 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Revuelta also identified higher oil prices and the war in Iran as risks that could raise airline costs and reduce capacity to leisure destinations. GAP is not considering broad discounts for airlines but said it could support individual routes where connectivity is threatened.