IF the numbers hold for the rest of July, the security forces will record the fewest incidents of fatal shootings in any one month since the start of this year.

Up to Tuesday, eight people were killed by the security forces in July, based on statistics provided by the Independent Commission of Investigations (Indecom) — the investigative body that probes reports of shootings, killings, and alleged abuse by members of the security forces.

In total, 167 people were killed by members of the security forces between January 1 and Tuesday, July 21.

The monthly breakdown shows 26 fatal shooting by members of the security forces in January, 23 in February, 25 in March, 39 in April, 24 in May and 20 in June.

On Tuesday, Professor of Sustainable Development Anthony Clayton told the Jamaica Observer that while he welcomes the reduction in police fatal shootings it is too early to start celebrating.

“Yes, there was a lot of concern that the number of instances of use of lethal force by the police were exceptionally high earlier this year, so it’s very good to see that there seems to be a downward trend. But we have to be careful not to overreact, because the numbers go up and down all the time,” said Clayton.

“There’s a lot of fluctuation in the numbers. So you can’t decide on the basis of just three or so months that we are really on the right track. Not yet. We need more time to see if the trend goes lower and stays low,” Clayton added.

He argued that connection needs to be made between the apparent downward trend in fatal shooting by members of the security forces and operational as well as policy changes.

“We need a few more months of data to be confident that the trend is in the right direction. The other thing that it’s very important to do is connect what is happening on the street with actual policy or operational changes.

An investigator from the Independent Commission of Investigations takes photographs of evidential items at a shooting scene involving members of the security forces.

“The numbers will go up or down anyway, but you have to be able to connect them to things that the police are doing differently, or possibly even changes in gang behaviour or criminal behaviour, to know if this is a genuine downward trend, or whether it’s just a response to random changes in the variables,” added Clayton.

He told the Observer that the problem is that every time the data goes up a little bit, people try and make a lot out of it. And conversely, every time it goes down a little.

“But the thing is, you can’t really say very much on the basis of just three months’ data. Obviously, the downward trend is very, very welcome, but we need to see if it’s continued. We need to see if that trend is continued over the next two or three months before we can be confident that it is really moving in the right direction.”

According to Clayton, in order to keep the number of police fatal shootings down, there are two things that ought to be done.

“One of them is we have to give them more non-lethal options, and this includes things like pepper spray, so that they can, if necessary, stop somebody from attacking them without killing them. The other thing — which is also very important — is body cameras. Every time the police are going into a situation where there is a threat or a potential need to use lethal force, their body cams should be running. And this is actually the best defence that the police have got against unwarranted accusations, that the incident should be recorded,” said Clayton who has also welcomed the decline in murders since the start of this year.

Between January 1 and July 18 this year the police reported 299 murders, a 22.3 per cent drop on the 385 recorded over the same period last year.

“That also suggests that we’re still on the downward trend that started [2024], which is very, very much to be welcomed. We had our first really substantial reduction in homicide rate in 2025 and if it’s continued this year, that will be wholly welcomed. But the important thing is that we continue to pursue the intelligence-led policing strategy and that we step up our efforts to intercept the weapons coming into Jamaica and we push on with the programme to dismantle and degrade the gangs,” said Clayton.

He pointed out that although Jamaica’s level of homicide has come down substantially in the last year, the country is still probably still going to end up in the world’s top 10 for homicide.

“So although the trend is very, very welcomed, we cannot afford to relax and feel that the problem is solved. We need to step up our efforts further,” Clayton said.