BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC)—The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) on Friday said that as the region goes into the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and the Caribbean Wet Season, El Niño is strengthening and water around the Caribbean steadily warming.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern defined by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and weakened trade winds. It recurs every two to seven years as part of the broader El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication covering the period August to October this year, CariCOF said that a very strong El Niño in the Pacific, implies a number of factors including an intense humid heat into the peak of the Heat Season in September, culminating in recurrent heatwaves, especially in the Lesser Antilles and Guianas.

It said also that there will be irregular and less frequent bouts of Atlantic Hurricane Season activity as well as the potential continuation or exacerbation of drought impacts, particularly in Grand Cayman and the Lesser Antilles.

In addition there will be lower than usual rainfall frequency than in most years and despite being less frequent than in most years, the expected occurrence of excessive rainfall events leads to high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.

It said that rainfall totals from August to October are likely to be the usual or less across most of the Antilles, French Guiana, coastal Guyana, and Suriname, as well as the Northwest Bahamas and western Belize.

As of July 1, severe or worse short-term drought has developed in Antigua, parts of Central Bahamas, eastern Belize, Grand Cayman, St Kitts and Nevis, southwest Tobago with long-term drought occuring in easternmost Cuba, Grenada, eastern Guadeloupe, southwest Jamaica, Martinique, St Lucia, St Vincent, and northernmost Trinidad.

CariCOF said that by the end of August, agricultural drought will be evolving in The Bahamas, Grand Cayman, Martinique and parts of coastal Suriname, and might possibly develop or continue in the ABC Islands, northern Belize, Dominica, Grenada, St Kitts, St Lucia, and the United States Virgin islands (USVI).

By the end of October, short-term drought would be evolving in the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao), northwest Bahamas, Grand Cayman, Dominica, Grenada, Martinique, northwest Puerto Rico, St Kitts, St Lucia, Tobago and the USVI, and might possibly develop or continue in the northern Bahamas, north & southeast Belize, southern Dominican Republic,. coastal French Guiana, Martinique, northeast Puerto Rico, other parts of the Leeward Islands.

CariCOF is predicting that by the end of November this year, long-term drought would be imminent in St Lucia and evolving in Antigua, the northwest Bahamas, Grand Cayman, Martinique and St Kitts, and might possibly develop or continue in the ABC Islands, the northern Bahamas, Grenada, Guadeloupe, St Vincent, Tobago and the USVI.