GENEVA, Switzerland (CMC)— The 2026–2027 El Niño weather phenomenon could threaten jobs, reduce incomes and worsen working conditions across the Caribbean, with agriculture, fisheries and tourism among the sectors expected to face the greatest risks, according to a new report from the International Labour Organization (ILO).

The ILO says the Caribbean is expected to experience drought, water shortages and heatwaves during the current El Niño cycle, conditions that could have significant consequences for workers, businesses and vulnerable communities across the region.

In its policy brief, El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean: a causal chain from climate to employment and labour institutions, the ILO warns that the climate phenomenon could disrupt employment, increase food insecurity, push up food and energy prices and worsen working conditions, particularly for informal workers, rural communities and people whose jobs require them to work outdoors.

The report identifies agriculture, fisheries and tourism as among the sectors most exposed in the Caribbean, with crops such as maize, beans, wheat, coffee and sugarcane also vulnerable to the expected weather conditions.

It warns that the impacts could include reduced rural incomes, forced labour migration, greater reliance on informal employment and severe heat stress among outdoor workers, while loss of livelihoods could also increase the risk of child labour in vulnerable households.

“The 2026–2027 El Niño poses a major challenge for employment and decent work in Latin America and the Caribbean. The scale of its impacts will depend on countries’ ability to anticipate them through strong labour market institutions, social protection systems and social dialogue that protect those who are most vulnerable,” said Fabio Bertranou, ILO deputy regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean.

The ILO noted that while the effects of El Niño will differ across the region, Caribbean countries are among those expected to experience prolonged dry conditions and heatwaves, in contrast to parts of South America where excessive rainfall and flooding are forecast.

The organisation also highlighted the Caribbean’s high levels of informal employment, saying many workers lack access to social protection and other mechanisms that could help them cope with climate-related shocks, making them particularly vulnerable to income losses and deteriorating working conditions.

The report says the impacts are not inevitable and urges governments to strengthen social protection systems, invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, reinforce occupational safety and health measures, expand early warning systems and promote social dialogue to reduce the labour market effects of the phenomenon.

The ILO urged policymakers to view El Niño not only as a meteorological phenomenon but as one capable of triggering a chain of impacts from climate shocks through economies and labour markets to employment outcomes, requiring coordinated action to protect workers and livelihoods.