BRIDGETOWN, Barbados — Governments, businesses, farmers and households across the Caribbean are being urged to step up preparations for potentially severe climate extremes as El Niño strengthens and threatens to intensify the hot and dry conditions already affecting parts of the region.

In a news release on Tuesday, the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona (UWI CSGM) warned that the region should remain particularly vigilant as August to October marks the peak of the Caribbean’s heat season.

The unusually dry conditions are also raising concern because the region is expected to enter its climatological dry season around November. Current forecasts indicate that below-normal rainfall could persist into 2027, while potentially record-breaking heat could develop during the next heat season, particularly from March through May.

Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck, climatologist at CIMH, said El Niño conditions in the Pacific strengthened rapidly from weak levels around May 2026 to moderate levels by July. Monitoring data now point to further rapid intensification, with forecasts showing a high likelihood of very strong El Niño conditions between October and December 2026.

The conditions are also expected to persist into the peak of the Caribbean dry season in March 2027.

Historically, El Niño has been associated with severe droughts across the region, including those experienced in 2009–2010 and 2014–2016. It can also increase the risk of extreme humid heat, wildfires and marine heatwaves, which can contribute to coral bleaching, according to Dr Van Meerbeeck.

He said similar combinations of extreme heat and other climate impacts were recorded during the exceptionally hot years of 2010, 2023 and 2024.

Areas already experiencing drought, particularly in the Eastern Caribbean, could face slower recovery of water resources during the peak of the wet season between September and October or November 2026.

Forecasts through at least October also point to a widening area of below-normal rainfall stretching from the Guianas in South America across the Lesser Antilles and into the Greater Antilles. At the same time, the region is expected to experience an increase in the number of days with hot spells.

The combination of reduced rainfall and increased evaporation could result in drought conditions across much of the Windward and Leeward Islands and the ABC Islands, as well as parts of the Greater Antilles, including Jamaica and Hispaniola, and portions of The Bahamas by October or November 2026.

These conditions could continue into early 2027 and expand across the region, raising concerns about accumulated water deficits and an increased risk of wildfires.

El Niño is generally associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons, a pattern that has been evident during the 2026 season so far. The season has had a relatively quiet start, with three weak and short-lived named storms in the Gulf of Mexico and one storm in the North Atlantic that remained far from land. CIMH’s early-August 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Activity Outlook found strong evidence that the remainder of the season could produce fewer storms than an average year.

However, Dr Van Meerbeeck stressed that a quieter hurricane season does not eliminate the threat of significant impacts.

“The risks signalled by the science earlier this year are now beginning to materialise,” said Professor Michael Taylor, co-director of UWI CSGM. “We are seeing an emerging climate disaster whose impacts combine heat, drought and marine extremes. Unlike a hurricane, the impacts will continue to build over months. However, that should not lessen the urgency or scale of our preparations. We must respond to the unfolding slow-moving crisis with the seriousness we bring to other major climate threats, since what we do now determines the options available to us later.”

Agriculture is expected to be among the sectors most vulnerable to the changing conditions. Reduced rainfall combined with higher temperatures can increase crop losses, threatening food security and rural livelihoods, particularly for subsistence farmers.

Rain-fed agriculture is of particular concern in areas where longer and more frequent dry spells are forecast, including Belize and Jamaica. The health sector could also face increased pressure, including risks linked to water quality and availability, vector-borne diseases and heat-related illnesses.

Water and energy systems may come under additional strain as demand for cooling rises. Countries that depend heavily on hydroelectricity or freshwater-cooled energy production could be particularly vulnerable.

The tourism sector may also feel the effects as hotels and other tourism facilities face increased demand for cooling and freshwater, while visitors and workers are exposed to prolonged periods of heat and dry conditions.

The Caribbean’s dependence on imports means climate-related disruptions outside the region could also affect food supplies, trade and the cost of goods. Governments are being urged to assess potential risks to supply chains, transportation networks and major trade routes.

Previous droughts have disrupted operations at the Panama Canal, an important transit route for goods entering the Caribbean and reaching ports along the eastern coast of the United States.

Food production in some of the region’s traditional source markets could also be affected by climate conditions, potentially creating additional pressure on regional food security and increasing the cost of living, the release said.