The Ministry of Education’s glossy Trend brochure is a masterclass in public relations gymnastics and not an honest assessment of our education system. By emphasising percentages based largely on candidates who sat examinations, the Government seeks to mask a devastating reality that thousands of children for whom the system was responsible effectively disappeared from its assessment of performance.

For the 2025/2026 academic year, there were 31,321 grade 11 students sitting in Jamaica’s classrooms. There is therefore an important distinction to be made between an exam pass rate and a cohort attainment rate. The former tells us how those who sat an examination performed.

The latter tells us what proportion of the children entrusted to the education system actually attained the qualification. It is imperative, therefore, that a true assessment of the system be based on the full cohort, especially for English language and mathematics.

The aim of this column is therefore to present what I believe to be a true assessment of the Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate (CSEC) results. This assessment will focus on performance in the basics (mathematics and English); the five-subject minimum objective of the secondary experience; performance in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM); and, finally, performance in the vocational offerings. In a future article, I will present some possible solutions to this crisis.

The Paralysis of the Basics

The ministry boasts of a 48.7 per cent pass rate for mathematics while ignoring that only 18,412 students sat the examination. Having reported that only 8,719 achieved a passing grade, this means that against the entire grade 11 cohort, the cohort attainment rate for mathematics is only 27.84 per cent.

The quality distribution is equally concerning. Only 1,351 students achieved Grade II, representing just 4.31 per cent of the cohort; 2,946 achieved Grade II, representing 9.41 per cent; while 4,422 received Grade III, representing 14.12 per cent of the cohort and accounting for more than half of those who passed.

English A presents a similar distortion. The celebrated candidate pass rate is 83.6 per cent, but only 16,720 students actually passed. Against the grade 11 population, the English A cohort attainment rate is 53.38 per cent. Nearly half of the cohort therefore left without attaining English A.

The ministry’s percentages ignore the children who did not make it to the examination table despite having invested 11 years in the primary and secondary education experience. In mathematics alone, 12,909 grade 11 students did not sit the examination. These children must also be part of our national assessment.

Shifting the Goalposts

The established local benchmark for satisfactory secondary completion and university entry has traditionally been five CSEC subjects, including both mathematics and English A. Unfortunately, only 6,696 of the 31,321 grade 11 students attained this minimum standard, representing a mere 21.38 per cent.

This nation must recognise the emergency when nearly four out of every five children do not attain this minimum benchmark. The ministry seeks to temper this by highlighting 12,124 candidates obtaining five or more subjects, including at least one core subject — mathematics or English. While that represents only 38.71 per cent of the cohort, the proposition that this is acceptable must be rejected. Mathematics stands as a training ground for logic, reasoning and problem-solving, while English language facilitates effective communication so that individuals can understand and be understood. Both are essential to a productive society.

More troubling is the headline 88.9 per cent candidate pass rate, where passing at least one subject becomes an important measure of success. Surely our ambition after 11 years of formal education cannot be a child leaving secondary school with one CSEC subject. I put it to the nation that the standard we choose to celebrate eventually becomes the standard we become comfortable producing.

The STEM Contradiction

The Government speaks about making Jamaica a “STEM island”, yet the participation numbers reveal how narrow the pipeline already is before pass rates are considered.

Of the 31,321 grade 11 students, 18,412 sat mathematics (58.78 per cent), 12,479 information technology (39.84 per cent), 5,649 biology (18.04 per cent), 4,970 physics (15.87 per cent), 4,822 chemistry (15.40 per cent), and only 986 additional mathematics (3.15 per cent).

The standard, as advanced by Professor Sir Hilary Beckles, regarding STEM targets was that at least 50 per cent of all students enrolled at the university level must be trained in STEM and STEM-related disciplines. This is far from the current examination enrolment rates and even further from the current pass rates. It is illogical to seriously aspire to dramatically expand tertiary STEM participation while producing such a narrow secondary STEM pipeline.

The TVET Contradiction

A similar problem exists in Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET). The Government promotes an 84.2 per cent TVET pass rate, but that headline obscures extremely low participation in the industrial subjects Jamaica needs to support construction, manufacturing and engineering.

Technical drawing was sat by 13.74 per cent of the cohort; Industrial technology electrical by 7.31 per cent; industrial technology building by 7.02 per cent; and industrial technology mechanical by only 4.05 per cent. Not one core industrial technology discipline reaches even eight per cent of the national cohort. We cannot repeatedly lament shortages of skilled labour while producing such limited participation in the subjects intended to begin building that skills base.

The Children Must Not Disappear

The figures above are an indictment on a Government that has failed to create an education system capable of producing the desired outcomes for the majority of our children. Our children are not failing because they lack capacity, they are being failed by a system that lacks remediation, ignores absenteeism, underfunds school operations, fails to provide the tools and environment necessary for learning, and remains incapable of retaining sufficient numbers of skilled and experienced teachers.

The danger of the Government’s statistical presentation is that it breeds institutional complacency. When candidate pass rates become the dominant measure of success, students who were never sufficiently prepared or entered effectively disappear from the national assessment.

A true national assessment must measure what happened to the entire cohort. The real test of an education system is not simply how many of the children who sat an examination passed, but how many of the children entrusted to that system it successfully prepared to sit, pass and progress.

Damion Crawford is the Opposition spokesman on education.