Opposition spokesman on finance Julian Robinson has dismissed as a “fallacy” the rosy picture of the Jamaican economy presented by Finance Minister Fayval Williams during Wednesday’s post-Cabinet media briefing.

Among other things, Williams noted that the rate of recovery from the fallout caused by Hurricane Melissa, which destroyed large swathes of south- and north-western parishes last October, was 18 months ahead of earlier projections by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).

However, Robinson is pointing to inflation running at nearly eight per cent and a $30-billion tax revenue shortfall as signs of a struggling economy.

In a video released by the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) on Thursday, Robinson suggested that the finance minister was merely trying to put a positive spin on the situation. He reminded that in the last quarter the Government’s own projection for revenues was $28.7 billion lower than projected.

“It’s important to note that these projections were done in March 2026, which is after Hurricane Melissa, so they would have factored in Melissa and they would have made their projections,” he said.

Robinson pointed out that the revenue shortfall of nearly $30 billion forced the Government to go back to the market to borrow $30 billion but the Administration was unable to raise the full amount.

“To give this impression that the economy is doing great is really a fallacy,” he declared.

The Opposition spokesman also highlighted what he described as the cost of living pressures facing Jamaicans. He cited that at nearly eight per cent, inflation was “way above the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) target range of four to six per cent”.

“I anticipate that when the BOJ’s monetary policy committee meets, they will be looking to raise interest rates to try and tame inflation,” he stated.

Were the central bank to take such a decision, Robinson conceded that this would put more pressure on businesses which will have to pay more on their loans, and on consumers, who will have to pay more on their mortgages and the various loans they are carrying.

“We’re far from being in a good position in the economy, we’re actually seeing the highest rates of car repossessions; we’re seeing bad loans at banks at elevated rates. So it indicates that there’s significant consumer pressure being faced, people are struggling to meet their basic obligations,” said Robinson.

Anticipating talk from some quarters that the cost of living pressure is being driven by factors outside Jamaica’s control, such as the higher cost for fuel and electricity as a result of the Middle East war, Robinson said while that is true, there are things within the control of the Government that would lessen the pressure on Jamaicans.

“The Government has the control to determine how much imported oil we use, it has been an absolute failure on the part of this Government to increase the amount of renewables that have been added to the grid,” Robinson argued.

“In the 10-and-a-half years that they have been in office, they have added no renewables to the grid,” he said, adding that what was in fact added since 2016 started under the previous PNP Administration with Phillip Paulwell as energy minister.

Pointing out that it took the Jamaica Labour Party Government eight years to issue a request for proposal for renewables, the Opposition spokesman said those companies that have been selected cannot sign private purchase agreements with Jamaica Public Service Company because the company’s contract is in limbo (its licence expires in July 2027).

He asserted that while we cannot control the price of oil, we can determine how much oil we import by building out more renewables. In this regard, he said the Government has failed; a failure with a direct impact on cost of living.

“Because, if we’re less dependent on oil, it improves our financial position and it means the impact is less on consumers,” he said.

Robinson also argued that the minister pointing out that the economy is recovering faster than projected masks certain uncomfortable realities.

“We’re underspending the capital budget. Our capital budget is required to build out schools, hospitals, roads, etc, we’re underspending that,” he reiterated. He argued that such spend is important to ensuring that there’s growth in the economy “because there’s a direct link between your capital budget and economic growth and for the last five years we have underspent it”.

Robinson pointed out that when the capital budget is underutilised, the money is shifted to recurrent expenditure such as wages and salaries. “This makes the fiscal situation look a little better but it does not account for the fact that we have been woefully underspending the capital budget,” he insisted.

He lamented that the vast majority of Jamaicans most affected by Hurricane Melissa — either at the individual or small business level — have received no assistance from Government. This, he said, has made it difficult for them to recover, resulting in lower tax revenues. He insisted that Government has taken too long to get help to those who are most in need.

In her take on the economy, Williams highlighted that in the quarter following the hurricane, the economy contracted 7.1 per cent, then 4.1 per cent in the next quarter and just 2.9 per cent in the quarter after that. She said the 2.9 per cent projection should be finalised by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica by the end of September.

The finance minister argued that the shrinking year-on-year numbers are themselves proof that the economy is recovering, adding further that “an economy in decline produces deepening figures, not improving ones”.

Williams urged Jamaicans to remember that immediately after the hurricane, PIOJ projected that the country would not get back to its pre-Melissa level of output until the last quarter of 2028. She noted that the PIOJ now expects that the economy will begin to see growth by the second quarter of 2027 — “six quarters earlier, a year-and-a-half earlier”. According to her, the PIOJ “has been able to revise their forecast because the out-turn keeps getting better”.