BY all indications this afternoon’s top-rated, $1.4-million Open Allowance contest is a two-horse war on paper, but at five furlongs (1,000m) on the round course — one of the trickiest trips at Caymanas Park — anything can happen from the gate.

The race has attracted just five runners, but what it lacks in numbers it more than makes up for in quality, with the classy Desert of Malibu taking on speedster California Crown.

Trained by Gary Subratie for owner Houston Stables, the seven-year-old, American-bred, daughter of Malibu Moon comes in as the horse to beat on class. She has won two races this season from four starts — the Overnight Allowance Easter Sprint over 5½ furlongs (1,100m) on April 6, when she showed her customary tactical speed and quickened decisively to win by 3 ¾ lengths, and she was also impressive beating
California Crown himself in the Hall of Fame Stakes on July 18.

Although she finished off the board on last in a 5½-furlong contest during which California Crown came home in third place, Desert of Malibu, on back class, is better than these.

Her biggest asset is versatility as she can press the pace from close range or settle just behind before launching her bid. At exercise she has been very active and looking fit and sharp. Over five furlongs around the course she will need to be closer earlier than she usually likes, but on pure class she is the one they all have to beat. Dane Dawkins takes the ride.

California Crown is the speed and the main danger. Jason DaCosta’s four-year-old is expected to be sent straight to the lead — and over this trip that is a huge weapon. Don’t judge him by his last run over 5½ furlongs on August, when he was third behind Pack Plays and Dothriaki but also had Desert of Malibu behind him in sixth place.

He has the early foot to clear this small field, and if he gets loose on the lead around the bend, he can steal it. With Tevin Foster in the saddle he will be dangerous.

The contest is positioned as the seventh event on the 10-race card with a post time of 3:45 pm. First race is at 11:50 am.

Another One is the closer not to be slept on. The Anthony Nunes-trained colt loves these sprint races. He proved it when he won at this exact trip on August 1, beating the highly rated foreigner
Gallant Groom by three parts of a length in 59.0 seconds.

If Desert of Malibu and California Crown go at each other hard up front, this is the colt who will be flying late. He is the perfect trip horse for this distance and is the value in exotics.

Rainsville and Linguist will need career-best efforts just to hit the board, and look more suited for lower down the ladder. They will be outclassed.

Pace makes the race and California Crown will lead, Desert of Malibu will sit right off him in second, with Another One three to four lengths back waiting to pounce. In the stretch it will come down to whether
California Crown can hold his speed around the bend. On class and adaptability, Desert of Malibu gets the nod to wear down California Crown late, with Another One filling the trifecta if the pace collapses.

Also on tap are the $1.25-million Kenneth Mattis Memorial Cup and the $1.1-million Louis Hitchins Memorial Cup races.

Girvano, trained by DaCosta, is easily the class horse in the Kenneth Mattis. He won the Miracle Man Cup on January 1, was second behind Legacy Isle’s track record run in the Eros Trophy over seven furlongs on June 6, and was second behind Phenomenal Power in the Diamond Mile on July 25. That is Graded Stakes form dropped into Overnight Allowance, which should make this a shoo-in. Described as a grinding middle-distance runner who just keeps coming, this nine furlongs and 25 yards (1,820m) trip is tailor-made for him.

California Crown (Robert Halledeen)Photo: Garfield Robinson

DaCosta’s
Maverick should also win the Louis Hitchins, a Restricted Allowance II contest for native-bred three-year-olds (non-winners of two) and imported three-year-olds and upwards (maidens) over seven furlongs (1,400m).

— Ruddy Allen

Ones to watch:

Race 1)
Ballistic Missile/Enthusiastic/Conundrum

Race 2)
Confidence Is High/Lockdown/Four Thirty

Race 3)
My Eclispe/Laurie/Delightful One

Race 4)
Fernando/Senor Biscotti/Bigger Boss

Race 5)
Sensational Destiny/One Ian Links/Havemewaitin

Race 6)
Maverick/Always Bourbon/Cindy’s Rush

Race 7)
Desert of Malibu/California Crown/Another One

Race 8)
She’s Ideal/Everything Kris/Mr Carter

Race 9)
Girvano/Intrestntimesahead/Miss Grove

Race 10)
Nephew/Princess Kris/Hazelnut