A new report by global energy think tank Ember has indicated that, while the Caribbean has been installing solar panels at a much faster pace than official statistics — policy and regulatory bottlenecks are slowing the region’s transition away from costly imported fossil fuels.

The report, which examined electricity sector data across 13 Caribbean countries, estimates that 2280 megawatts (MW) of solar capacity was installed across the region between 2021 and 2024 — almost twice the 1269 MW captured in official statistics. Despite the faster pace of solar deployment across the region, renewables accounted for just about 9.1 per cent of the 64 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity generated across countries in 2024 — compared with 32 per cent globally.

In light of these findings, the report points to policy, rather than the cost of renewable technology, as a major setback on the pace of deployment.

“Policies, not costs, are the main barrier to renewable deployment in the Caribbean,” said Latin American analyst

Wilmar Suárez in his review of the data.

“The Caribbean remains highly exposed to fossil fuel imports, and every price rise feeds through to the cost of living for households or to the public accounts,” Suárez further noted.

The findings having particular implications for Jamaica showed the country featuring prominently among the Caribbean countries most exposed to imported fuel.

Based on the report, 11 of the 13 countries analysed, including Jamaica, imported all of the fuel used to generate electricity.

In Jamaica, fossil fuel imports for all uses amounted to the equivalent of 9.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 — almost three times the global average of 3.2 per cent and the highest among the Caribbean countries for which the data could be measured. Barbados also had a high level of exposure, with fuel imports equivalent to 7.3 per cent of GDP, while the Dominican Republic’s figure stood at 4.4 per cent.

This level of dependence leaves Caribbean economies vulnerable to international oil and gas price swings, with higher fuel costs feeding into electricity prices, household expenses, and, in some cases, government subsidies.

“Electricity prices across much of the region are already among the highest globally, with the average estimated at about US$0.25 per kilowatt hour, more than twice the median of 10 US cents in emerging economies,” the report noted.

According to the report, fossil fuels supplied 90.9 per cent of the region’s electricity in 2024 — comprising gas at 40.5 per cent, oil products at 38.7 per cent, and coal at 11.7 per cent. Between 2018 and 2024, regional electricity generation was also said to have increased by 7.6 per cent, with about two-thirds of that additional generation being supplied by fossil fuels.

“As a result, the renewable share increased by less than two percentage points, from 7.3 per cent to 9.1 per cent,” the data showed while noting that this occurred even as renewable energy costs continue to fall sharply and contracts in the region increasingly demonstrate that renewables can undercut fossil-fuel generation.

The report also pointed to a significant gap between the region’s actual solar build-out and official capacity data. While 11 of the 13 countries analysed have ambitious renewable energy targets, the study found only six with verifiable metrics, with none on track to meet its target.

For Jamaica, its target of generating 50 per cent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030 stood at just 8.9 per cent in 2024 — with a share of that amount declining by about 3.8 percentage points since 2020. The report attributed the decline to lower hydro and wind generation, while electricity demand grew by about a fifth and the additional demand was met by gas and oil generation.

Highlighting similar gaps existing across the region, it said in countries such as Cuba, which has the most modest target among the six countries with verifiable targets at 26 per cent by 2035, their renewable share totalled 3.7 per cent in 2024. Trinidad and Tobago, on the other hand, while having a 30 per cent target for 2030, had no official statistics recorded for renewable generation in 2024.

Despite the shortfall, Ember, in its report, estimated that achieving the six verifiable targets could, however, lift the region’s renewable share to 23 per cent by 2030 and reduce fossil-fuel generation by about 9 per cent.

The report, flagging policy design and implementation as key roadblocks to faster renewable adoption, recommended several measures, including setting measurable targets with regular, independently verified progress checks; separating decisions on generation approvals and grid connections from utilities; and designing electricity tenders around the needs of the power system, with procurement results made public.

Ember said the region’s growing solar market presents an opportunity to reduce its exposure to international fuel markets, provided governments move to address the policy barriers slowing deployment. “The Caribbean now has a real opportunity to reimagine its energy system. One that is not exposed to the volatility of fossil fuel markets and is more resilient to hurricanes and storms,” Suárez said. “Leaders

who act decisively will position their countries at the forefront of this historic opportunity.”