TWO years ago, in this space, we asked the question, “Dare we begin to hope again?”, after noticing that the people behind the latest phase of oil exploration in Jamaica were behaving rather suspiciously, as if they knew something the rest of us were waiting to hear.

Earlier that year — and after almost eight decades searching for oil on and offshore — the Irish-headquartered United Oil and Gas, and the Jamaican-owned Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica took the bold step of organising an “investor evening” at Jamaica’s High Commission in London.

It was the biggest indication yet that the principals were ready to sign partnerships for commercialisation and production of the estimated seven billion barrels of oil that they have apparently confirmed in Jamaican territory.

This week, United Oil and Gas announced it had completed “a rig and logistics study” which outlines the requirements for potential drilling offshore Jamaica and brings the company a step closer to attracting investors to fund drilling activities.

The study relates to the Walton-Morant licence south of the island and provides the company with “practical insight into rig and equipment availability and critical path items” required to access the potential one billion barrels of oil in the area, according to chief executive Mr Brian Larkin.

For investors and potential partners, he says, the study addresses a practical question that often arises long before a drill bit reaches the seabed — whether the equipment, contractors, and supply chain needed for a deep-water campaign can realistically be assembled.

If United Oil secures the much-sought-after investor, the company will have greater visibility on how an exploration programme could be executed. And rather than simply having geological prospects on paper, it can “point prospective partners to available drilling rigs, equipment procurement timelines, and a logistical support plan based largely in Jamaica”.

Wanting to be cautious, apparently, the company stressed that the study does not amount to a decision to drill, noting that, “Any future well would still depend on securing commercial agreements, obtaining regulatory approvals, and completing the farm-out process.”

One hopeful sign, however, is that United earlier this year secured a two-year extension of its licence from the Jamaican Government to January 2028, giving it more time to seek a drilling partner capable of financing the estimated US$30 million for an initial exploration well.

It is useful to bear in mind that Caricom partner Guyana started exploring for oil in the 1950s, about the same time as Jamaica. Their breakthrough came in 2015, thanks to ExxonMobil ,the American oil giant, but only after decades of slow progress, border disputes, and dry holes.

ExxonMobil began evaluating seismic data in Guyana’s Stabroek Block in 2008, started drilling in 2014, and struck oil at Liza-1 in May 2015. Production officially commenced in December 2019, achieving one of the fastest deep-water transitions from discovery to production in industry history.

Perhaps Guyana’s good luck in attracting a big financier like Exxon is tied to its proximity to Venezuela, which has the world’s largest reserves of oil. But as Jamaicans like to say, “What is fi wi caan be un-fi wi” In other words, if we are destined to find oil, nothing can stop it.