The People’s National Party (PNP) has been defeated in the two most recent local government elections and the last three general elections. With regard to the acquisition of State power, the PNP has never had it so bad. Regarding the acquisition and retention of State power, the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has never had it so good.

The great challenge for the PNP going forward is to convince a majority that it can govern Jamaica without setting back the modernisation clock and, in so doing, plunging the country back into a rathole similar to that of the 1970s, 1990s and early 2000s.

The big challenge for the JLP is to convince a critical mass that it still has the gumption to modernise Jamaica’s roads, water infrastructure, social institutions, courts, housing, environmental protection, and human rights, along a strongly positive path. Yet, the party faces an even greater challenge: It must convince the majority that the executive possesses the energy and alacrity required to advance the country in a way that meaningfully and materially lifts up those who have the least.

The road ahead for the ruling JLP is tough.

Sherene Golding Campbell.

In my The Agenda column of July 14, 2026, I warned: “Many Jamaicans will soon forget that nearly 8 months ago, one of the most powerful hurricanes in recorded history landed on our shores. If the Andrew Holness-led Administration does not appreciably increase its delivery so that many more ordinary Jamaicans feel it in our pockets and see it on our dinner tables, the legitimate cry of a critical mass will quickly become: ‘The hurricane gone and pass long time, and JLP nah 7 nor 11.’ ”

And in my column of October 4, 2026, I noted that: “For nearly a year after Hurricane Melissa rammed into Jamaica’s hull, some of the repair crew remain fast asleep. Some are half awake, while some are working beyond the call of duty. Ordinary Jamaicans are feeling the pinch of this great disconnection in our lives and livelihoods.”

It is within this context that I believe that Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness should do a Cabinet shake-up. I think it would be unwise for the prime minister to begin 2027 with the executive as is. Most Jamaicans treat the start of a new year as a time of renewed hope. The governing JLP needs to match the energy of the majority by demonstrating evidence of freshness and new hope. This is especially critical because the JLP has had the keys to Jamaica House for the last 10½ years.

A party in its third-straight term invariably suffers from some staleness and needs to constantly find ways of pressing the refresh button. If that refresh button is not pressed at the start of or early in 2027, I believe that will be a clear signal to the country that it is business as usual, when what is required is business unusual.

Matthew Samuda (Photo: Naphtali Junior)

In my column of January 4, 2026, entitled ‘Forecasts for 2026’, I noted that: “The JLP has been at Jamaica House since February 2016. This year will be its most difficult since taking power, I believe. Harbingers are plentiful and evident.” I believe 2027 will be a make-or-break year for the ruling JLP. I will say more in my forecasts for 2027.

Ahead of that, I am sure that anyone with even a passing interest in local politics is seeing that 2027 is going to be an “eggs or young ones” juncture for the ruling JLP. Folks no longer want to hear how the procurement rules are delaying the implementation of the benefits. Folks are no longer interested in ‘soon comes’ and announcements. Folks now want to experience results. Decisive results are the name of the game for the JLP going forward. The third-term honeymoon done long time — some are now whispering divorce.

Folks are feeling the severe bite of rising inflation. Jamaica’s year-on-year inflation rate reached 8.60 per cent in September 2026, up from 7.90 per cent in August 2026, according to data from Trading Economics and the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). These are not numbers on a page for the majority.

Biting inflation means many of us are buying fewer items at the market and wholesale outlets. The severe bite of higher inflation means the basic nutritional needs of some Jamaicans are heading south. For many Jamaicans, rising inflation means working harder but staying stationary. These realities beg for a new lease on life from the Administration. The clock is ticking!

Abka Fitz-Henley

MORE ENERGISED EXECUTIVE

From the mix of available talent the following mix could deliver the renewed energy needed to deliver faster and more meaningful results:

No portfolio change: Dr Andrew Holness, Dr Horace Chang, Fayval Williams, Kamina Johnson Smith, Edmund Bartlett, Olivia Grange, Desmond McKenzie, Daryl Vaz, Ambassador Audrey Marks, Dr Andrew Wheatley, Robert Montague, Robert Morgan

However, I proffer the following:

1) Minister of Health & Wellness (MOHW) – Floyd Green

2) Minister of Justice – Pearnel Charles Jr

3) Minister of Education, Skills, Youth and Information – Matthew Samuda

4) Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce – Delano Seiveright

5) Minister of Labour and Social Security – Zavia Mayne

6) Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining – Dr Christopher Tufton

7) Minister without portfolio in the Office of the Prime Minister responsible for of Water, Environment and Climate Change – Abka Fitz-Henley

8) Minister without portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Infrastructure Development with responsibility for family services, demographic stability, and consumer protection – Sherene Golding Campbell

I believe that if the Administration is to be sufficiently re-energised so that it can considerably improve its delivery of benefits, all in the Cabinet need to be firing on all cylinders.

Folks are saying it is ‘eggs or young ones’ time now for the ruling JLP. It is not an unreasonable expectation, notwithstanding the oil crisis and massive fallout from Hurricane Melissa.

Pearnel Charles Jr (Photo: Joseph Wellington)

CRISIS AT THE ROOT

Some commodities and related experts say this present oil crisis is worse than the oil crises of the 1970s. This reality does not make the severe bites of rising inflation any less bearable. The fact is that the pockets of ordinary Jamaicans are under severe pressure. We, as Jamaicans, often say, “Pressure buss pipe.” The pipes of many Jamaicans have already burst.

Families are under serious economic, social, and emotional stress and strain, as rural folks often say. One does not need to have a degree to understand that these stresses and strains are having, and will continue to have, a very negative impact on relationships of all types. Many credible studies have shown that folks are opting to have fewer children primarily because of rising cost of living.

Consider this: “According to the United Nations Population Fund, at the Jamaican launch of the State of World Population 2025 report, Jamaica’s total fertility rate was reported at 1.9 children per woman, also below the replacement level of 2.1. While this differs from the MOHW rate of 1.3, the rates are based on different data sources and reference periods. Regardless of the estimate used, Jamaica’s fertility rate is below replacement level and reflects a sustained decline.

“Jamaica is not alone in confronting declining fertility rates. The United States recorded a total fertility rate of approximately 1.63 children per woman in 2024, remaining well below the replacement level of 2.1. Approximately 3.63 million births were registered in the United States that year. Similarly, New Zealand recorded an even lower total fertility rate of 1.56 children per woman in 2024, with 58,341 live births registered. China is also confronting an extremely low fertility rate of approximately 1.01 children per woman, despite recording 9.54 million live births in 2024, as well as population decline. This has prompted national concern about its ageing population and shrinking future workforce.” (Jamaica Observer, September 6, 2026)

Ponder this: To improve population replacement rates governments around the world use pronatalist policies — measures designed to encourage and support childbirth (British Broadcasting Corporation, June 15, 2026). Other credible sources say that because direct cash incentives alone rarely reverse long-term declines, countries combine financial bonuses with structural support, family leave, and housing programmes. What are the best practices in Singapore, South Korea, Hungary, Japan, and the Nordic countries? How can these best practices be tailored to the unique social, religious, and economic realities of Jamaica’s noticeably declining fertility rates? This crisis directly centres on the well-being of local families.

The family unit in this country is in crisis. It is a crisis which impinges not just on the declining fertility rates, but on everything else. The increasing deterioration of discipline in our schools, declining levels of civic responsibility, noticeable increases in domestic violence, downturn in respect for the rule of law, indiscipline on the roads, paternity fraud, and I could go on, are all connected to the crisis in many homes across the length and breadth of Jamaica.

We are playing with huge sticks of dynamite that are already lit. It is in this context of evident urgency that I believe Jamaica needs to have a dedicated ministry to serve the needs of recovery and safeguarding of demographic stability, consumer protection, and family services. These interrelated matters are far too important simply to push them into the crevice of an existing ministry or agency. We need to act, fast.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.