The US midterm elections have enabled the Republicans to snatch the slender majority that the Democrats had in the House and may leave control of the Senate to be determined by a run-off in Georgia next month. The results surprised many and pundits must now be questioning themselves as to how to second guess the voters.

Midterm elections traditionally swing heavily against the party of first-term presidents, and the sharp rise in the cost of living — the most potent of all the issues that influence voter behaviour — suggested the certainty of a “red wave”. It didn’t happen.

Based on the popular vote tallied so far, the results show a swing of five per cent to the Republicans but in terms of seats won at the gubernatorial, Senate and House levels, it fell far short of the tsunami that the Republicans and even independent observers had expected.

Analysts will no doubt be trying to identify the factors that produced these results. President Joe Biden asserted that the survival of America’s democracy was on the ballot. This seemed to have gained traction when Barack Obama, the Democrats’ most effective messenger, jumped into the last two weeks of the campaign.

The Republicans sought to frame the elections as a referendum on Biden whose approval ratings were under water. Donald Trump, by inserting himself so prominently in the campaign, may have made the elections a referendum on him as well, his approval ratings also being under water and being the lightning rod that he is.

Perhaps the most far-reaching effect of the election results will be to disabuse the minds of some Republican leaders and voters that the Trump cultism is all they need to secure victory. He endorsed many candidates, most of them election-deniers and conspiracy-spouters. Most of them would have won anyhow since they were running in deep red districts and states. Many of those who were in competitive races lost.

Will Trump’s failure to positively impact the election results enable other Republican leaders to find the cojones to rescue the party from his grasp? The influence of cult leaders like Charles Manson, Jim Jones and Ron Hubbard didn’t evaporate even when it became clear that their miracles were not working. They simply assured their followers that what appears to be a setback was just a necessary part of the journey to glory.

Trump’s cultism runs deep. How else does one explain the fervent support that he continues to enjoy among white evangelical leaders some of whom campaigned vigorously for Herschel Walker — a man whose credibility is as shaky as his credentials — against the Reverend Raphael Warnock in the Georgia Senate race, some even questioning his Christianity?

Trump had signalled that this week he will announce his intention to run again in 2024. Will the election results abort this plan? Such an announcement could well impair the Republicans’ chances in the Georgia run-off next month.

Pundits suggest that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is likely to emerge as Trump’s most formidable challenger. He strikes me as just a more refined version of Trump. His recent TV advertisement proclaiming himself to be a “fighter” specifically chosen by God for a time like this reveals a lot about him. He won his re-election convincingly and some of the biggest Republican financiers like Rupert Murdoch are sidling up to him.

Mockery and abuse are the only ways that Trump knows to deal with competitors or adversaries. Ted Cruz, Mitch McConnell, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina can attest to that. Sensing that DeSantis, whom he once touted as a possible running mate, might challenge him, he had no compunction in mocking him — a colleague facing an election in three days — with the epithet “Desanctimonious”.

Trump’s only reference to Nancy Pelosi since the attempted murder of her husband by one of his sycophants was to describe her as an “animal”. All the wealth in the world and a Boeing 757 parked on the tarmac can never disguise the lack of class and decency.

Bolstered by the much less than dismal performance of the Democrats in the midterm elections, Biden has indicated his intention to run again in 2024 although he stopped short of affirming it as a decision. He must not allow himself to be carried away. Some of the successful Democratic candidates in very competitive races strategically kept him away from their campaigns. By 2024 Biden will be 81 years old. He frequently displays cognitive difficulties, stumbling over his words, inaccurately referring to his son Beau as having served in Afghanistan and calling on Congresswoman Jackie Walorski at a White House event a month after she had died in a car accident.

Senior citizen leadership was once the style in China but it has long abandoned that. America needs new leadership that can inspire its people to repair its identity, rescue its threatened democracy, reassert its cultural diversity and reclaim its influence in the world. So much of its achievements, including the work and legacy of the Rev Martin Luther King Jr, is at risk. Biden should recognise and accept his transitional role in history and not suffocate the succession that is needed.

Trump, who will be 78 years old in 2024, needs to do the same but that is not likely to happen. He is too obsessed with his own genius and indispensability. Any attempt to dislodge him is likely to be messy. Going quietly is not a part of his DNA. Slash and burn is almost certain to be his reaction. Damaging the party is the preferred consequence of any effort to damage him.

America’s political crisis is far from over. The midterm election results provide some relief if not hope, but it has a long way to go.