KINGSTON, Jamaica— The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is reporting that the economy grew by an estimated 1.9 per cent during the July to September 2023 quarter, compared with the corresponding period last year.

Speaking during the PIOJ’s quarterly briefing on Tuesday, Director General, Dr Wayne Henry, said the out-turn for the review quarter largely reflected higher levels of employment, increased capacity utilisation in the mining and quarrying industry and continued growth momentum in the tourism sector.

Regarding real-sector developments, the goods-producing industry grew by an estimated 2.3 per cent, driven by improved performances in two of the four industries – mining and quarrying, and manufacturing.

Real value added for the mining and quarrying industry increased by an estimated 102 per cent, due to higher alumina production that outweighed a contraction in crude bauxite output.

“Alumina production increased by 136.6 per cent due to an expansion in the alumina capacity utilisation rate to 42.4 per cent, up 24.5 percentage points. This was driven by increased capacity utilisation at the Windalco and Jamalco refineries as operations gradually returned to normalcy following technical issues that constrained production at Windalco, as well as Jamalco’s ramping up of capacity since its reopening at limited capacity in the corresponding period of 2022,” Dr Henry said.

Crude bauxite production fell by 4.9 per cent, reflecting lower demand from overseas purchasers.

The average bauxite capacity utilisation rate decreased to 40.7 per cent, down 2.1 percentage points.

Dr Henry informed that real value added for the hotels and restaurants industry grew by eight per cent during the quarter.

He explained that the industry continues to benefit from increased foreign national arrivals, considering the continued economic growth in main source markets.

Stopover visitor arrivals for the quarter increased by 5.5 per cent to 682,586 visitors, while cruise passenger arrivals were estimated at 178,412, a decline of 20.5 per cent, relative to the corresponding 2022 quarter.

Dr Henry further revealed that visitor expenditure was estimated to have increased by six per cent to US$991 million.

Growth in the manufacturing industry was estimated to be 3.2 per cent, stemming from increased output in both the Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Other Manufacturing industries.

Dr Henry said growth in the Food, Beverages & Tobacco sub-industry was linked to higher production of condensed milk, up 92.2 per cent; flour, up 58.8 per cent; bakery products, up 3.2 per cent; poultry meat, up 0.6 per cent; rum and alcohol, up 16.6 per cent; and carbonated beverages, up 3.3 per cent.

Those increases were sufficient to outweigh declines in production recorded for beer and stout, and sugar and molasses.

The Director General added that the improved performance of the Other Manufacturing sub-industry, mainly reflected higher production in petroleum products, all of which increased.

Meanwhile, Dr Henry advised that the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector contracted by an estimated nine per cent, reflecting the adverse impact of drought conditions.

“Below-normal levels of rainfall throughout the quarter resulted in lower yields and a reduction in hectares reaped. The industry’s performance was reflected in declines recorded for Other Agricultural Crops, which contracted by 11.8 per cent. Lower production was recorded for eight of the nine crop groups,” he said.

Lower output was also recorded for traditional export crops, which decreased by 7.5 per cent.

This largely reflected contractions in the production of banana, down 6.6 per cent; coffee, down 48 per cent; and sugar, for which there was no production during the review quarter.

Animal farming was estimated to have increased by 1.4 per cent due to higher broiler meat production, up 0.6 per cent to 34.7 million kilograms, and egg production, up 11.8 per cent to 66 million eggs.

Turning to construction, Dr Henry said real value added was projected to be flat, reflecting an estimated contraction in building construction, which was counterbalanced by growth in the ‘Other Construction’ component of the industry.

“The industry’s performance was constrained by a 3.1 per cent real decrease in the sales of construction-related inputs. The falloff in the building construction component was due mainly to the performance of the residential category, reflecting in a 66 per cent downturn in housing starts by the NHT (National Housing Trust),” he stated.

Additionally, the total value and volume of mortgages disbursed declined by 45.4 per cent and 12.6 per cent, respectively.

-JIS