COOLUM, Australia — The Commonwealth is always full of surprises. Few expected an unlikely troika of Howard, Mbeki and Obasanjo to end up sitting in judgement on the conduct of the crucial presidential election in Zimbabwe.

Yet, that is exactly what is about to happen after hours of tough talking between the leaders of 50 countries in their tent-like rooms provided in the Queensland resort of Coolum for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM).

A fourth man will have a critical role to play alongside Prime Minister John Howard of Australia and presidents Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria — the Commonwealth secretary-general, New Zealander Don McKinnon.

The Commonwealth, accused of being slow to act against the excesses of the government of Robert Mugabe, now finds itself centre stage in the Zimbabwe crisis.

When the European Union pulled out in a huff, the 60-strong Commonwealth election observer team became the only international one remaining on the ground. The leader is Abdulsalami Abubakar, the man who took Nigeria from military to civilian rule after the dictatorship of Sani Abacha.

The team will decide whether the election has been fairly conducted. If their verdict is negative the troika is empowered to decide whether the Commonwealth should suspend Zimbabwe from membership. Some countries will also impose “smart” sanctions on Mugabe and his colleagues.

Not since Margaret Thatcher defied her fellow leaders on sanctions against South Africa in the 1980s has the Commonwealth been so divided on an issue as it was in Coolum.

Howard and prime ministers Tony Blair of Britain and Helen Clark of New Zealand wanted Zimbabwe suspended straight away, seemingly unconcerned that this could be counter-productive and result in Mugabe turning the observers out of the country days before the elections.

Clark, ever outspoken, said: “I hope we don’t have another CHOGM like this one again. It has failed to wrestle effectively with Zimbabwe.”

Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong of Singapore took a quite different view, saying that “we have to give weight to the neighbours of Zimbabwe because they have to live with the consequences of whatever the Commonwealth decides”.

Howard climbed down on suspension as he struck up a rapport with Obasanjo and found himself one of the troika. These three men could find themselves facing issues that are more profound for the Commonwealth than just a judgement on the quality of the Zimbabwe elections.

This summit came perilously close to the kind of white-black divide not witnessed in the Commonwealth for decades. Discussion had been “intense, committed, involved”, said Howard. Everyone wanted to take part.

Foreign Minister Stan Mudenge, representing Mugabe, was given half-an-hour to put Zimbabwe’s case. Howard said that at no stage did the debate become “nasty or unpleasant… spiteful or acrimonious…” But the fact that Howard used these words betrayed how near the meeting came to the edge.

Howard said: “What the Commonwealth had decided is not something that pushes it off to the nether-nether. If there is an adverse report it provides a mechanism. What the Commonwealth Heads have done is to mandate… It has given us authority to make a judgement.”

The troika has been created with the past, present and future holders of the new office of chairperson-in-office of the Commonwealth. In Coolum, Mbeki, host of the Durban CHOGM in 1999, handed over to Howard. The 2003 CHOGM will be in Abuja and Obasanjo will take over.

The Coolum talks were more informal than for many years. They were held in retreat-style. The leaders sat around in spacious and soft armchairs, many in slacks, open-necked and sandalled. Only two officials were present — the conference secretary and McKinnon.

Coolum has marked the return of Australia to the African political scene. The chemistry of the meeting had a historic basis. Obasanjo has had long experience of working with Australia. He and former prime minister Malcolm Fraser led the Commonwealth mission to South Africa in 1986, which was a catalyst for the downfall of apartheid.

The two men visited Mandela in prison and produced a report that provided the framework for the negotiating process adopted a few years later for majority democratic government in South Africa. Fraser became highly respected in Southern Africa for the Commonwealth role he played in achieving independence for Zimbabwe in 1980 and in his work on South Africa.

Subsequently, Australian interest in Africa waned. The Labour governments of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating paid little attention to the continent and until now the Liberal Howard has also been uninvolved. Now it seems the Commonwealth has pulled Howard in, although when he offered Australia as the next CHOGM host in 1999 it was not evident that Zimbabwe would become a central issue.

The troika on Zimbabwe will face tough decisions if the Commonwealth observer report delivers a less-than-clear verdict on the conduct of the election or if the outcome between Mugabe and his rival Morgan Tsvangirai is close.

Howard explained that if the observer report is adverse, full authority has been given “to determine on behalf of the Commonwealth a response… instructed entirely by the Commonwealth principles which range from collective disapproval to suspension from the councils of the Commonwealth”.

Obasanjo, fast developing as Africa’s elder statesman, is approaching his role in the troika in a business-like manner. Just before he flew home, he said: “I am a fair man and I believe that anybody will believe that Zimbabwe should be suspended if the election is not fair… We have been given a joint task to perform. We have to perform it.”

He added: “What we need to do for Zimbabwe now is to help that country, which is already going down economically and going down socially. It is not to inflame them with violence and bitterness.”

In their carefully-worded statement on Zimbabwe, the leaders recognised that land is at the core of the crisis “and cannot be separated from other issues of concern to the Commonwealth”.

President Ben Mkapa of Tanzania accused the Commonwealth of taking no initiative in dealing with the core crisis. He said: “It has failed because there has been no funding for land reform in Zimbabwe. If the Commonwealth has a role it must address this question.”

Mkapa sounded a note of warning when he said that “whatever the Commonwealth observer group says at the end of the electoral process must be taken side by side with what other national groups are saying”. Mkapa has 25 Tanzanian observers there. South Africa and the African Union have other teams.

Commonwealth summits usually get hijacked publicly by a single topic and Coolum was no exception. On the wider front of good governance, the leaders revamped its watchdog body of eight foreign ministers, the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG), bringing India into membership for the first time.

Secretary-General McKinnon is given more scope to look at situations where democracy might be eroding and not just where it is unconstitutionally overthrown, as in Pakistan or the Fiji Islands.

The leaders produced a declaration that in many respects goes further than the 1991 Harare and 1971 Singapore statements — including for the first time, for example, a commitment to freedom of expression.

Unbelievably, till now Commonwealth countries have not formally pledged themselves to this cornerstone of democracy.

— DEREK INGRAM, who co-founded Gemini News Service in 1967, has covered 15 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meetings.