The Manatt/Dudus affair has bruised Bruce Golding. Some say it is a mortal wound politically. As a result, a seismic shift has begun in the ruling Jamaica Labour Party with party faithful, kingmakers, insiders and top cats picking their side. The two sides that have emerged are pro-Bruce and anti-Bruce.

Contrary to popular perception, it was not the Manatt/Dudus fiasco that triggered the remove-Bruce sentiment in the JLP. It is alleged that the Bustamante-ites and the Seaga-ites were never comfortable with the Golden One’s return to the fold. After all, it is felt that, especially in 1997, his fledgling National Democratic Movement , seen then as “a baby JLP”, caused the Labourites to lose that year’s general election. Ironically, though, Bruce ultimately became the conqueror, thanks to a cadre of young Turks who used much money (Edward Seaga said it was tainted) and a slick public relations campaign to send the “Old Man” home to “mind baby”.

The anti-Golding faction thus saw him as a necessary evil, though they cautiously embraced him at the outset. But after the dust had settled and the victory parties had been held, the scrutiny began. Among the issues that upset this group was Golding’s reported snubbing of then US President George W Bush who had invited him to the White House. How dare he snub the most powerful leader in the world at that time? Golding had allegedly argued that Bush was a lame-duck president and so the visit would have been merely a social call. Many political pundits have argued, however, that Golding’s gaffe has severely affected Jamaica’s relations with Uncle Sam and we are continuing to see this play out in many subtle and not so subtle ways. For example, where is the new US ambassador?

Golding’s subsequent handling of the Dudus extradition further cemented the view that he was hell-bent on committing one irreconcilable gaffe after another. In the meantime, this same anti-Bruce group became very bitter with what they saw as his bringing into the party a number of former NDM-ites whom he gave plush posts while ignoring the faithful who had been there during the lean years when he was not. Of course, the final straw that broke the camel’s back was the incursion into West Kingston (Tivoli Gardens). It is an open secret that Tivoli has been the nerve centre of the JLP’s electioneering machinery. Geopolitically and otherwise, that once empowered bastion had spread its influential and strategic links all across the island. Labourites will not say this publicly but the gutting of Tivoli has been akin to the evisceration of its much-vaunted and feared war machine that has now been neutered (or seemingly so) and they blame Golding for this.

It is against this background that Labourites are preparing to go to conference next November and the most potent question on everybody’s lips is, who should lead the JLP? Interestingly, one high-ranking JLP member told me rather gloatingly recently that I should not become over-perturbed about what is happening in the party in terms of the challenges. According to him, this is just a part of a grand design and as far as he was concerned, the challenges were healthy for the JLP. One must ask rather pointedly, though, who are the persons behind this grand design?

Is this grand design being pursued to keep Bruce Golding at the helm or is it to orchestrate a relatively smooth transition post-Golding? It has been said repeatedly by party insiders as well as discerning outsiders that Golding has lost interest in the leadership post and wants to go. And it is not merely the Manatt/Dudus fiasco. There is a very powerful, influential cabal with strong connections to the US State Department that wants Golding out, for reasons best known to them. So unless a bruised Bruce can be assured of at least 75 to 80 per cent of support from delegates and the top drawer of the party, he is likely to step and make his swan song speech at the coming conference.

Alas, Bruce is not as decisive and blunt as his predecessor Edward Seaga who asked for a national delegates vote back then when his leadership was under attack, which he dubbed “the settlement of all arguments”. Seaga got some 75 per cent of the votes which he ran with and stayed at the helm. No doubt, it is who will capture the coveted posts of general secretary and deputy leaders that will help Golding to decide whether or not he is the odd man out. Clearly, a Vaz/Tufton winning ticket would make him smile broadly. Anything else may well make him frown and start to glance towards the exit door at Belmont Road. A firm ally, James Robertson, is already in the mix and the dark horse is Edmund Bartlett who, although traditionally a Seaga-ite, appears to be increasingly comfortable with Golding at the helm. Meanwhile, what with the G2K’s sustained onslaught on the presumed dinosaurs in the party, it remains to be seen what course the Old Guard will take. Given the fact that these races have the potential to fracture the party in a most deleterious way, it may well be the likes of Mike Henry, Dr. Ken Baugh, Pearnel Charles as well as the main donors of the party to step in and prevent Bustamante’s party from once again self-destructing.

The bottom line is, can the ruling JLP go to conference when its top-tier leadership structure is in turmoil and its maximum leader is regarded as damaged goods? These are indeed challenging times for a party that was in the political wilderness for 18 and a half years and is now facing relegation after just barely beating the People’s National Party and some three years ago. The die is cast.

lloydbsmith@hotmail.com