THE leadership of the People’s National Party (PNP) must be buoyed by recent polls showing the party with a substantial lead over the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), but it is much too early to predict victory in the next general election constitutionally due by September 2012.

Several things stand between the current high poll numbers and ultimate victory at the polls: PNP leader Portia Simpson Miller is yet to present a winnable mix of new people and policies despite several promises; the Government’s new policy mix is finding favour in some key segments of the society; and, they have the advantages of incumbency.

At the party’s annual conference last September, Mrs Simpson Miller said she would ‘shortly’ announce a new shadow cabinet. Nothing happened. She repeated the promise immediately after her contribution to the 2011-2012 Budget Debate two weeks ago; there’s no action yet.

Implicit in the promise of renewal is a recognition that voters don’t believe the present group of leaders around the PNP president is up to the job of running the country. This is even as the party enjoys a comfortable lead due mainly to Prime Minister Bruce Golding’s steep fall in public support over his handling of the United States request to extradite JLP strongman Christopher ‘Dudus’ Coke on charges of trafficking guns and drugs.

Most of the current PNP spokespersons — old or young — are not well known, according to the data from the recent TVJ/Ian Boxill polls.

When asked who were the most effective Opposition spokespersons, respondents placed Peter Phillips on top, followed (in order) by Peter Bunting, KD Knight, Simpson Miller and Lisa Hanna. Nobody else was above the radar, not the PNP vice-presidents and most of the official spokespersons.

Neither Phillips nor Knight are spokespersons; however Phillips’s visibility in Parliament and Knight’s starring role in the Manatt/Coke enquiry would explain their high poll numbers.

Given recent PNP history, a new shadow cabinet is not merely a matter of shuffling the same old deck, but a signal that the party understands and is ready to deal with the challenges of today, not the ones in place when they left office in 2007.

The change must also signal that there are no festering wounds from the bruising leadership campaigns in which Mrs Simpson Miller twice snuffed out challenges from Phillips and emerged as the undisputed leader of the party.

Phillips, whose questions to Prime Minister Golding set off the chain of political bombshells now known simply as ‘Manatt/Dudus’, remains the most vocal and visible Opposition member of parliament. But he has no shadow portfolio responsibility, although he has been named to the important post of campaign director and, as such, would be a leading player in devising and implementing an election strategy.

One assumption making the political rounds for months is that in a reshuffle of the PNP front benches Phillips would be cast in a role that places him as deputy prime minister in any future PNP government and a leading figure in shaping and implementing economic policy. Composition of the entire economic team is seen as crucial.

The other side of this coin is that former finance minister, Dr Omar Davies — now caught up in the eye of the firestorm of controversy over the meltdown in the financial sector in the 1990s — would be assigned new responsibilities.

Those two aside, Mrs Simpson Miller is also under some pressure to give greater voice and responsibility to a second generation of leaders represented by people like Lisa Hanna.

The case for renewal is compelling and this may explain the insertion of Patrick Atkinson, QC, into the supposedly safe PNP seat of Northern Trelwany where incumbent Dr Patrick Harris is quitting representational politics.

Atkinson, who was in the spotlight as the combative counsel for Phillips in the Manatt enquiry, has gained national recognition overnight and, it is said, would improve the PNP’s talent pool. He’ll do that, assuming he wins.

In search of the progressive agenda

On the policy side, Mrs Simpson has been promising to outline a progressive agenda from as far back as 2008.

Acknowledging at the time that the recent international developments highlight the urgency of the problems we face in Jamaica, the PNP president said, “We must immediately set out on a fresh agenda that will encompass new and creative dialogue with all groupings within the society”.

The progressive agenda, she said, provides the framework to correct “the disparities that have caused frustration, cynicism and discontent”.

As reported at the time, the emphasis will be “on equality of outcomes” which Mrs Simpson Miller defined as “ensuring that each Jamaican, despite their social background, can attain the objectives he or she sets for themselves once the systemic impediments are removed by progressive government policies”.

Despite a long process of national consultation led by Anthony Hylton, PNP spokesman on foreign affairs, the party is yet to present to the country a comprehensive ‘progressive agenda’ with goals, objectives, price tags and other resource requirements, as well as expected outcomes in the economy and human development.

Further, the policy gap was not filled out in the opposition leader’s Budget speech; although she sought to make a distinction between the Opposition and the Government by reaffirming her unquestioned championing of the cause of the poor. She charged that “the taxation, waivers and incentives policy of the Administration favour those who need it least”.

She added, “The first step in securing a brighter future today and beyond is to determine today the things that we need to do to get it right once and for all. We recognise that it cannot be business as usual. We need a different approach, a different way of thinking.”

Again, the specifics were few, although the PNP leader did propose that a programme called CARE be implemented.

Under the programme, “a major sporting facility [is to] be constructed in every constituency in which inner-city communities exist. Sporting facilities should be equipped with a running track, swimming pool, gym, homework centre and a space for lifelong learning.”

There was no price tag, only an assertion that “funding for this initiative can be sourced from JSIF, CHASE, HEART and SDF”.

It is quite possible that the PNP may not want to embrace a comprehensive policy framework for scrutiny ahead of the election, but focus instead on Golding’s loss of credibility and continued weaknesses in the economy.

But this could have a downside and generate fears among the country’s economic elites that a PNP administration would undo the JLP’s ‘stability’ programme and the IMF straitjacket to make itself more attractive to Mrs Simpson Miller’s social base, the poor and those on the fringe.

In such a scenario, it may be difficult for the PNP to attract campaign funds that are necessary for effective organisation and getting out the vote. On the other hand the JLP, with a settled economic and financial policy framework, is also likely to attract more campaign contributions from the private sector.

Further, as incumbent, the JLP has certain advantages, among them control over the state apparatus including the budget and targeted expenditures; more media attention; patronage; and research resources.

In these circumstances, the PNP leader needs to quickly bring speculation over a shadow cabinet to an end. She has left it dangling for too long, opening herself to a charge of indecisiveness. After all, it was Mrs Simpson Miller who promised that change was coming. Her credibility is on the line.

kcr@cwjamaica.com