It’s funny how fortunes change from week to week. Last week if you will recall, I was 4-0 in my Wild Card game predictions against the point spread, and the lead dog.

This week….well, let’s just call it a total reversal of fortune, resulting in the not so admirable score of 0-4. My only consolation is that I did pick the Ravens to win and they just squeaked by the Texans with not enough to cover the handicap. My colleagues incidentally did not fare all that well either, registering only one win each. Kudos, however, to Andrei Roper for picking the Giants and Andrei Hutchinson for picking the 49ers. Those picks were bold and perhaps insightful. But enough of that!

The die is cast and the table is set as the final four head into the penultimate contest of the NFL season, the Championship round, to see who will clash in Super Bowl XLV1 on February 5. In the AFC it will be the Patriots up against the Ravens and in the NFC, the Giants against the 49ers. The latter is going to be the game of the week if not the season.

Before we take a look at the match-ups in this week’s Conference Championship, let’s take a brief look at what went down in the Divisional Play-offs.

Divisional Play-off Results

Saturday, January 14

San Francisco 49ers 36 – New Orleans Saints 32

New England Patriots 45 – Denver Broncos 10

Sunday, January 15

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Houston Texans 13

Green Bay Packers 20 – New York Giants 37

In the Fox pre-game show before the Giants/Packers game, Former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson laid down the usual clichés about defence winning games, ball control and not giving up turnovers. Well, maybe the Packers should have listened to him because the Giants defence made the high-flying Packer offence look tame and inept. They made a seemingly rusty Aaron Rodgers throw some errant passes; they sacked him four times and, for the most part were in his face the rest of the time. The Packers didn’t help themselves either, by dropping eight passes. But simply put, the Giants defence put their team in a position to dominate. Eli Manning and the rest of the offence took advantage of this and punched their ticket to the Conference Championship to face a horse of a different colour, the resurgent and very, very good San Francisco 49ers.

Over on the west coast, San Fran continued to show the world that they are for real by beating the Drew Brees and the vaunted New Orleans Saints, and securing a spot in the NFC Conference Championship game. 49ers quarterback Alex Smith, a former first overall draft pick, labeled a “bust” for years, finally showed that he can play at a high level in this league, and engineered a game-winning drive with the help of his not too shabby tight end, Vernon Davis. Without belabouring the point, here’s a team on the rise and here’s a team that can go the entire way. Please remember I said that.

There is very little point in talking about the Patriots’ win over the Broncos. David went up against Goliath and Goliath prevailed this time. No amount of divine intervention could have possibly helped young Tim Tebow and his tribe as the league’s elite quarterback, Tom Brady, led his confident bunch to a dominating 45-10 victory, and a place in the AFC Conference title game against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens for their part handled the Texans in their Divisional Play-off match by forcing four turnovers, including three interceptions by rookie quarterback T J Yates. They subsequently converted those turnovers into 17 points and ended up beating the Texans 20-13. I think this is the end of the road for the Ravens though, and I’m surprised they even got this far. No one, including this guy, is giving them a chance in New England.

But like I’ve said before, the ball isn’t round and you don’t know where it will bounce. You have to remember that the Ravens upset the Patriots 33-14 in the play-offs two years ago — in New England. Can they do it again in 2012? I doubt this very much.

In the Play-offs, there is always merit in picking the home team. History has been much kinder to home teams in the play-offs than to away teams, but as the Green Bay Packers showed last year in winning three road games on the way to the Super Bowl, road teams can get the job done. But home teams generally have the advantage and this is one of the reasons why I’m picking the 49ers to beat the Giants. The other reason is the way the 49ers play defence and how they force turnovers. These guys are going to pressure Eli Manning and his big play offence into making some costly mistakes. Remember too, in week 10 the 49ers did beat the Giants. Then again these are the play-offs, where the stakes are much higher and pressure much greater.

Over in the AFC, the Patriots loom large in New England as Belichick and Brady get their troops ready to meet the feisty Ravens with Joe Flacco at the helm. Flacco is a much improved quarterback and has alongside him a defence led by the veteran, the ever enthusiastic Ray Lewis, who may be a bit past his prime, and seems to give better pep talks than on the field effort. Truth be known, Lewis is not one hundred per cent and is just not the guy he used to be. It’s going to take a miracle for the Ravens to overcome the Patriots at home. So now you know my picks. Enjoy the games this weekend, and remember to place your bets with JustBet!

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP SCHEDULE

(Point Spreads in bracket, Under/Over included)

Sunday, January 22

New England Patriots v Baltimore Ravens (+7.5), U/O 49.5 | CBS

San Francisco 49ers v New York Giants (+2.5), U/O 43.5 | FOX

*Handicaps and Under/Over subject to change without notice, prior to kick-off

EXPERTS’ PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

Andre Hutchinson’s – Conference Championship Picks (in bold)

Patriots v Ravens

49ers v Giants

Last week: 1-3

Playoff Record: 4-4

Tony Scott’s – Conference Championship Picks (in bold)

Patriots v Ravens

49ers v Giants

Last week: 0-4

Playoff Record: 4-4

Andrei Roper’s – Conference Championship Picks (in bold)

Patriots v Ravens

49ers v Giants

Last week: 1-3

Playoff Record: 3-5

Peter Lindo’s – Conference Championship Picks (in bold)

Patriots v Ravens

49ers v Giants

Last week: 1-3

Playoff Record: 2-6

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