Subscribe Login
Jamaica Observer
ePaper
The Edge 105 FM Radio Fyah 105 FM
Jamaica Observer
ePaper
The Edge 105 FM Radio Fyah 105 FM
    • Home
    • News
      • Latest News
      • Cartoon
      • International News
      • Central
      • North & East
      • Western
      • Environment
      • Health
      • #
    • Business
      • Business Bites
      • Social Love
    • Sports
      • Football
      • Basketball
      • Cricket
      • Horse Racing
      • World Champs
      • Commonwealth Games
      • FIFA World Cup
      • Olympics
      • #
    • Videos
    • Entertainment
      • Music
      • Movies
      • Art & Culture
      • Bookends
      • #
    • Lifestyle
      • Page2
      • Food
      • Tuesday Style
      • Food Awards
      • JOL Takes Style Out
      • Design Week JA
      • Black Friday
      • #
    • All Woman
      • Home
      • Relationships
      • Features
      • Fashion
      • Fitness
      • Rights
      • Parenting
      • Advice
      • #
    • Obits
    • Classifieds
      • Employment
      • Property
      • Motor Vehicles
      • Place an Ad
      • Obituaries
    • More
      • Games
      • Elections
      • Jobs & Careers
      • Study Centre
      • Jnr Study Centre
      • Letters
      • Columns
      • Advertorial
      • Editorial
      • Supplements
      • Webinars
    • Home
    • News
      • Latest News
      • Cartoon
      • International News
      • Central
      • North & East
      • Western
      • Environment
      • Health
      • #
    • Business
      • Business Bites
      • Social Love
    • Sports
      • Football
      • Basketball
      • Cricket
      • Horse Racing
      • World Champs
      • Commonwealth Games
      • FIFA World Cup
      • Olympics
      • #
    • Videos
    • Entertainment
      • Music
      • Movies
      • Art & Culture
      • Bookends
      • #
    • Lifestyle
      • Page2
      • Food
      • Tuesday Style
      • Food Awards
      • JOL Takes Style Out
      • Design Week JA
      • Black Friday
      • #
    • All Woman
      • Home
      • Relationships
      • Features
      • Fashion
      • Fitness
      • Rights
      • Parenting
      • Advice
      • #
    • Obits
    • Classifieds
      • Employment
      • Property
      • Motor Vehicles
      • Place an Ad
      • Obituaries
    • More
      • Games
      • Elections
      • Jobs & Careers
      • Study Centre
      • Jnr Study Centre
      • Letters
      • Columns
      • Advertorial
      • Editorial
      • Supplements
      • Webinars
  • Home
  • News
    • International News
  • Latest
  • Business
    • Business Bites
  • Cartoon
  • Games
  • Food Awards
  • Health
  • Entertainment
    • Bookends
  • Regional
  • Sports
    • Sports
    • World Cup
    • World Champs
    • Olympics
  • Videos
  • Career & Education
  • Classifieds
  • All Woman
  • Environment
  • Webinars
  • More
    • Football
    • Elections
    • Letters
    • Advertorial
    • Columns
    • Editorial
    • Supplements
  • Epaper
  • Design Week
Business
September 4, 2012

ECB chief is wielding even more sway than Bernanke

WASHINGTON, USA — Move over, Ben Bernanke. This is Mario Draghi’s moment.

The European Central Bank president is overtaking the Federal Reserve chairman — at least for now — as the central banker with the most influence on the global economy and markets. Faced with a growing recession and a possible breakup of the 17-country euro alliance, Draghi has bigger problems than Bernanke, who’s overseeing an economy in recovery.

As head of the ECB, which meets tomorrow, Draghi also has more ammunition left than Bernanke does.

The Fed chief still wields considerable power to drive financial markets. That was clear last week, when stocks jumped after Bernanke signaled in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Fed will do more to help the still-weak US economy.

Yet the focus of the global financial world has shifted to Draghi. Some economists expect the ECB to cut its benchmark interest rate Thursday. Many also hope Draghi spells out plans by the ECB to start buying bonds of troubled European governments to ease their borrowing costs and shore up the euro alliance.

“Draghi’s role in averting an implosion of the eurozone puts him in the unfortunate position of being the central banker with the greatest influence on global financial stability in the short term,” says Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University.

Bernanke’s task isn’t as urgent, “since the US economy is plodding along and does not face an imminent disaster scenario.”

Stock prices have risen in recent weeks, in part because investors expect the Fed and the ECB to reduce lending costs in the United States and Europe. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index has risen more than five per cent since July 25.

Greece, struggling with debts and its fifth year in recession, may have to stop using Europe’s single currency if it doesn’t impose the tough budget cuts being demanded as a condition for its bailout. Many fear that bigger indebted countries — like Spain and Italy — would be forced to follow Greece out of the eurozone.

The breakup of the alliance could be devastating. Borrowers in countries that left the eurozone would struggle to produce enough money in their weak local currencies to repay old debts denominated in much stronger euros. As debts soured, Europe’s banking system would freeze up. Its economy would likely follow.

“The stakes in Europe are much higher,” says Ethan Harris, co-head of global economic research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Europe is already in a recession. Their banking system is in worse shape than ours. And their fiscal policy process is even more broken … The survival of the euro is at stake.”

Last month, Draghi vowed to do “whatever it takes” to hold the eurozone together and said that “believe me it will be enough.” Markets rallied on the bold promise. Investors assumed the ECB would intervene in the bond market and buy up Italian and Spanish government debt. They hope its purchases would drive Italy’s and Spain’s borrowing costs down to sustainable levels.

Imminent action by the ECB is considered unlikely. Indebted countries like Spain would first have to apply for aid to the eurozone’s bailout fund. Then they would have to agree to conditions spelling out how they’d shrink their deficits.

And key details have yet to be settled. They include how tough the conditions would be and whether any bond purchases would target a specific interest-rate ceiling.

Theoretically, Draghi has limitless power to print money to pour into bond purchases. But Germany’s conservative Bundesbank opposes the purchase plan. It says governments could become addicted to central bank support — and slack off on cutting their deficits.

Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann, who sits on the ECB’s governing council, is so far alone in opposition to bond purchases by the ECB. But Weidmann could conceivably rally more support for his position if Draghi and the council majority are perceived as going too far.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has indicated she’s open to Draghi’s plans — a key factor fueling market expectations he’ll be able to carry out a strong intervention. Analysts say the effort to save the euro ultimately needs public support in the currency union’s largest country.

Draghi must also navigate past the ECB’s narrow mandate under the basic EU treaty. The treaty forbids the ECB to directly finance governments. But it allows it to buy securities including government bonds on the open market, leaving a gray area that’s been hotly debated.

“Draghi can do a lot, but he’s significantly more constrained by politics,” says Julian Brigden, managing partner of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, an investment consultancy.

Last week, Draghi urged Germans to support his efforts to rescue the euro. Writing in the German weekly Die Zeit, he said the ECB sometimes must use “exceptional measures” to stabilize the currency alliance.

David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto money manager Gluskin Sheff & Associates, says power has shifted from Bernanke to Draghi. During the US recession, Bernanke held the most sway. But now Europe’s woes have taken center stage, and what Draghi says and does can move markets more.

But Draghi may have set expectations too high with his whatever-it-takes pledge, Rosenberg says. Markets won’t accept anything less than an open-ended commitment to buy Spanish, Italian and other European countries’ bonds.

“He better have some form of bazooka, loaded and ready to go,” Rosenberg says.

By contrast, many analysts worry that the Fed has used up its tools to help the US economy’s sluggish recovery. It has pushed short- and long-term interest rates to historic lows. The economy might not get much of a kick even if the Fed proceeds with a third round of bond purchases designed to drive long-term rates even lower — a move the markets are expecting after Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole.

“There’s a tremendous amount of hype in the United States surrounding the importance of monetary easing,” says David Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, a consultancy. “But such moves by the Fed seem to have relatively little effect.”

On Friday, the US government will issue the August employment report. Economists’ consensus forecast is that employers added 135,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate remained 8.3 per cent. US unemployment has topped eight per cent for 42 straight months.

Cornell’s Prasad says Bernanke could reclaim the number market mover title if America’s bickering politicians fight once more over the nation’s debt limit or can’t reach a budget deal by the end of the year.

Under rules designed to force a compromise, failure to reach agreement would trigger US$600 billion worth of spending cuts and tax hikes. The draconian moves would send the economy over the so-called “fiscal cliff” and possibly into recession. Bernanke might be forced to move aggressively to limit the damage if that happens — or even appears likely to happen.

Both Bernanke and Draghi are already powerful enough to have nicknames worthy of economic superheroes. Bernanke is “Helicopter Ben” because he once referred to the Fed’s ability to rescue the economy with a “helicopter drop” of cash. And Draghi is, perhaps inevitably, “Super Mario.”

For now, Draghi appears to have the most influence over global markets and the world economy. After all, Draghi had to cancel his appearance at the Jackson Hole conference where Bernanke made so many headlines. He was too busy preparing for the ECB’s Sept. 6 meeting and looking for ways to hold Europe together.

{"website":"website"}{"jamaica-observer":"Jamaica Observer"}
img img
0 Comments · Make a comment

ALSO ON JAMAICA OBSERVER

Magnitude 7.1 earthquake strikes Venezuela
Latest News, Regional
Magnitude 7.1 earthquake strikes Venezuela
June 24, 2026
CARACA, Venezuela (AFP) — A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Venezuela on Wednesday, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reported, triggering pa...
{"jamaica-observer":"Jamaica Observer"}
Australia teen social media ban has little impact — research
International News, Latest News
Australia teen social media ban has little impact — research
June 24, 2026
Sydney, Australia (AFP) — Australia's social media ban for under 16s has had little impact on teenagers' scrolling habits, researchers said Thursday i...
{"jamaica-observer":"Jamaica Observer"}
Hayles proposes national strategy to modernise Jamaica’s water sector
Latest News, News
Hayles proposes national strategy to modernise Jamaica’s water sector
June 24, 2026
KINGSTON, Jamaica — Opposition Spokesperson on Water and Special Projects, Ian Hayles, has outlined what he says is a comprehensive strategy aimed at ...
{"jamaica-observer":"Jamaica Observer"}
Church should have been consulted on US-Jamaica deportee pact, says St James Ministers Fraternal chairman
Latest News, News
Church should have been consulted on US-Jamaica deportee pact, says St James Ministers Fraternal chairman
June 24, 2026
ST JAMES, Jamaica — Chairman of the St James Ministers Fraternal, Reverend Glendon Powell, has raised concerns over the Government’s recently signed m...
{"jamaica-observer":"Jamaica Observer"}
Trump casts doubt on US involvement in deadly Iranian school strike
International News, Latest News
Trump casts doubt on US involvement in deadly Iranian school strike
June 24, 2026
WASHINGTON, United States (AFP) — President Donald Trump on Wednesday cast doubt on United States (US) involvement in the missile strike on an Iranian...
{"jamaica-observer":"Jamaica Observer"}
21-y-o French footballer drowns in the Rhone amid heatwave
International News, Latest News
21-y-o French footballer drowns in the Rhone amid heatwave
June 24, 2026
PARIS, France (AFP) — French second division footballer Kenzo Kies of Guingamp has drowned after he and three friends were caught in fast, choppy wate...
{"jamaica-observer":"Jamaica Observer"}
Bosnia in strong position to reach last 32, Qatar out of World Cup
International News, Latest News, World Cup
Bosnia in strong position to reach last 32, Qatar out of World Cup
June 24, 2026
SEATTLE, United States (AFP)—Bosnia-Herzegovina are on the verge of reaching the knockout stages of the World Cup for the first time after beating 202...
{"jamaica-observer":"Jamaica Observer"}
Swiss beat Canada 2-1 to clinch top spot in World Cup Group B
International News, Latest News, World Cup
Swiss beat Canada 2-1 to clinch top spot in World Cup Group B
June 24, 2026
VANCOUVER, Canada (AFP)—Ruben Vargas and Johan Manzambi fired Switzerland to top spot in World Cup Group B on Wednesday with a 2-1 win over Canada as ...
{"jamaica-observer":"Jamaica Observer"}
❮ ❯

Polls

HOUSE RULES

  1. We welcome reader comments on the top stories of the day. Some comments may be republished on the website or in the newspaper; email addresses will not be published.
  2. Please understand that comments are moderated and it is not always possible to publish all that have been submitted. We will, however, try to publish comments that are representative of all received.
  3. We ask that comments are civil and free of libellous or hateful material. Also please stick to the topic under discussion.
  4. Please do not write in block capitals since this makes your comment hard to read.
  5. Please don't use the comments to advertise. However, our advertising department can be more than accommodating if emailed: advertising@jamaicaobserver.com.
  6. If readers wish to report offensive comments, suggest a correction or share a story then please email: community@jamaicaobserver.com.
  7. Lastly, read our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy

Recent Posts

Archives

Facebook
Twitter
Instagram
Tweets

Polls

Recent Posts

Archives

Logo Jamaica Observer
Breaking news from the premier Jamaican newspaper, the Jamaica Observer. Follow Jamaican news online for free and stay informed on what's happening in the Caribbean
Featured Tags
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Health
  • Auto
  • Business
  • Letters
  • Page2
  • Football
Categories
  • Business
  • Politics
  • Entertainment
  • Page2
  • Business
  • Politics
  • Entertainment
  • Page2
Ads
img
Jamaica Observer, © All Rights Reserved
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • RSS Feeds
  • Feedback
  • Privacy Policy
  • Editorial Code of Conduct