Grenada and the challenge of a landslide
The power of the people is still the dominant factor in any democratic society. It is that power that went on display on February 19 and swept back into office, with a historic landslide majority, the centrist New National Party (NNP) of 65-year-old mathematician Dr Keith Mitchell.
The Grenadian people have spoken, and Mitchell must now set about the business of giving their voice shape, form, purpose and direction. Early indications are that he has invested the mandate given to his party with elemental powers which he is determined to use while remaining fully conscious of the sanctity of the source.
The NNP, for the second time since 1999, trounced in spectacular fashion the social democratic, divisive, and poorly branded National Democratic Congress (NDC) led by attorney-at-law and former Prime Minister Tillman Thomas, by winning all 15 parliamentary seats.
A year or two from now when Mitchell’s Government is deeper into the intractable problems of regional and global economic and social blight, it can be better assessed as to whether the NNP is able to make life better for the Grenadian people.
But for now, given his wealth of experience from governing the tri-island state of Grenada, Cariacou and Petite Martinique for 13 unbroken years (1995-2008), it is widely expected that his Administration will at least bring energy, enthusiasm and wisdom to the leadership of the country.
But Keith Mitchell is too savvy a politician not to know that landslide victories can be extremely dangerous.
For one thing, they are usually a signal of the deep-seated intensity of demands from a populace which can, in turn, be very impatient over the matter of having its hopes, dreams and aspirations realised in record time.
In the case of Grenada, such intensity of demand will undoubtedly be boosted by the fact that the country experienced little or no growth in the four years from 2008 to 2012. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) all but dried up within this period, which saw at least US$700 million in tourism projects put on hold.
At the same time, the country’s total debt as a percentage of GDP rose from 71.7 per cent in 2008 to 87.2 per cent in 2012, representing a jump of 7.5 per cent. Private sector credit declined precipitously too, followed by a sharp rise in the levels of inflation and a high debt-to-GDP ratio. And the country’s wage bill and debt payments ate up 80 cents of every dollar collected as revenue.
To make matters worse for the island — once described by the United Nations Human Settlement Programme as a global model of post-disaster recovery — the collapse of two regional insurance companies constrained any hope of recovery from economic sluggishness, by wiping out some 15.3 per cent of the GDP of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union.
The upshot of this dramatic decline in the level of economic performance eventually led to deep cuts in capital expenditure, rising food and fuel prices, an increase in unemployment and poverty, and fiscal consolidation.
Of particular interest in all of this is the fact that when Grenadians voted overwhelmingly for Dr Keith Mitchell and the NNP in last February’s parliamentary election, they did so having lived before in a buoyant economy that was managed by the NNP, and appeared to offer contentment.
At present, the Grenadian electorate clearly believes the NNP, based on past performance, can deliver recovery; and the party, in turn, is convinced it can.
“The party which I lead,” Mitchell said confidently in his 2012 Christmas Message, “has revived its organs, refreshed its leadership and has positioned itself to be the vanguard of the Grenadian recovery.” The party’s confidence in its ability to lead Grenada has never waned.
Delivering what is arguably one of the most powerful speeches of his political career to a 20,000-strong audience on the Sunday evening of June 7, 2008 — one month before he was voted out of power — the NNP leader was in no doubt as to the ability of his Government to lead Grenada for a fourth term. He said then:
“Over a period of 13 years, we have developed an understanding of the world, an understanding of the complex imperatives of development; and an understanding of the great changes underway in our society.”
We can take away from this the understanding that the NNP offered the electorate of Grenada in the last election something credible as alternative in the area of greatest popular concern, in an environment of economic blight and stagnation, and the political ineptitude of the ruling party.
Hence, what the Grenadian people are said to have considered with respect to party preference in the recent election, cannot be divorced from previous successful attempts by the NNP at the skilful and creative husbanding of the resources of Grenada necessary to meet popular expectations.
Mitchell himself was never challenged from any quarter — local or international — when he declared during a national broadcast on ‘Law and Order in Grenada’ in March 2008: “Thousands of new jobs (were) created in the economy within the last three years, and the agricultural, tourism and manufacturing sectors have all experienced positive growth within the same period. There are billions of dollars of private direct investments in Grenada today and the economy is growing at four per cent per annum. Thousands of our young people are being trained and certified to take up the real well-paying jobs to come on stream shortly from the new investment projects. We cannot stop this progress now.”
The economic issues that dominated the electoral campaign clearly demonstrate that out of desperation and fear, the Grenadian electorate, burdened by declining living standards, have given Mr Mitchell and his team a landslide mandate to make Grenada work once again in the interest of the majority. The operative word is “work”.
But to be successful in this endeavour he will have to use his considerable charisma, persuasive authority and wisdom to bring to Grenadian politics into the new dispensation, authority of experience, political know-how, and trust — all of which can help immeasurably in mobilising the energies of a people known for their sense of decency throughout the region, who will be expected to build, repair and produce more for the Grenadian economy.
Given the austere global economic realities facing the country and the region, the reality of the meaning and requirement of the landslide victory may have already sunk in. For an 11-member Cabinet has been sworn in to shoulder the burden of 38 subject portfolios.
And, like Edward Seaga in the 1980s, Prime Minister Mitchell has assumed responsibility for seven of these portfolios, namely, finance, energy, national security, implementation, information, disaster preparedness and home affairs, supported by a junior minister.
It is hoped that the people of Grenada, Cariacou and Petite Martinique will be able to rely on the goodwill and best wishes of the entire Caricom community as they seek to recover from years of economic downturn.
Whatever the outlook, however, it is certain that efforts to discover paradigms to match the new reality in the lives of Grenada’s 100,000 souls, in an effort to guarantee accountability, transparency and fairness in the one-party Parliament, will once again challenge both Government and civil society in that country for some time to come, to mitigate the possible adverse side effects of an electoral landslide.