AN old saying has it that confidence is suspicion gone to sleep. Yesterday, Sagicor CEO Mr Richard Byles held a press conference on the 17th monthly review of the now internationally famous Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC).

As co-chair of EPOC, tasked with reviewing the performance of Jamaica’s IMF programme, and one of Jamaica’s most respected CEOs, Mr Byles has become the key spokesman keeping Jamaica informed as to whether our IMF programme is “on track”, a critical piece in the puzzle of restoring confidence.

EPOC’s regular updates on the economy, and Jamaica’s good performance, have meant that recent IMF quarterly reviews of Jamaica have become a bit of a non-event, with the results having already been effectively announced by EPOC.

Commenting on their most recent communiqué, Mr Byles observes that both the fifth quarter IMF review, which did not even require a meeting, and the recent upgrade of Jamaica’s outlook to positive from stable support EPOC’s view that the economy continues to improve, albeit slowly, under the programme.

Net international reserves are nearly US$1 billion above their September target, the central government primary balance is $3.4 billion above target, with the fiscal deficit and overall debt correspondingly lower than budget.

Despite this good news, we are told that nearly three quarters of Jamaicans believe the country is “going in the wrong direction”. The key concern is that, beyond certain pockets of optimism, there has not been much general improvement in confidence locally.

EPOC notes that revenues and grants for the five-month period April to August were $5.9 billion below budget. Even if that is understated, by the $1.8 billion that was received in September due to end-of-the-month timing differences, tax revenues are still roughly $4 billion below budget.

The poor performance of domestic GCT and corporate taxation supports the view that the domestic economy is still weak. And, despite businesses expressed intentions, one is unlikely to see a large increase in investment until local demand improves.

Business and consumer confidence has only improved very marginally from the very depressed levels it reached back in 2013. The many signs of this continued lack of confidence include depressed retail sales, a stagnant stock market, a frozen bond market, and a general feeling of malaise and lack of opportunity amongst the population, yet unbroken by the job prospects from future large scale foreign direct investment.

Indeed, one of the striking things about the recent surveys of consumer confidence by the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce is that in the last quarter consumer confidence had resumed an admittedly mild decline after only recently having bounced off the 10-year low recorded in the third quarter of last year.

Indeed, uncharacteristically, consumers seem more pessimistic than business people, who appear to have a more favourable view of IMF policies, judging from their planned investments. Causes for suspicion, or more precisely lack of confidence, include the further delay in the energy project (now late 2017 or early 2018), the significant amount of debt that will need rolling over in the next two years, and whether the new public sector wage negotiations just beginning can avoid busting the budget.

Most importantly, with the imminent return of the election cycle, starting with local government elections due in March next year, there is likely to be concern over the sustainability of the fiscal adjustment in an environment where politicians see a need for spending to win an election, put more simply as the return to “run wid it”.

So, although EPOC’s clear communication has undoubtedly helped confidence in areas such as the exchange rate, confidence is still well below the levels required for improvements in the economy that the man on the street can feel.

The release of today’s third quarter business and consumer confidence survey will confirm whether this trend continues.