MANDEVILLE, Manchester — With parliamentary elections constitutionally due in less than two years, co-chairman of the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) Richard Byles has warned that political instability could easily undermine economic recovery.

“We are entering a very challenging period. I don’t mean just economic, I mean politically because we are going to be having a general election in the next, let’s say, two years, maybe 18 months,” Byles told the Association of Surgeons at their annual luncheon in Mandeville on Sunday.

“One of the two political parties is going to win power and have authority over this country on our direction for the next five years. The question is, “Will Jamaica win regardless of which one of them has power?”

He said responsibility on the part of political leaders would be crucial in ensuring that the economic recovery programme under the Extended Fund Facility of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains on track, adding that Jamaicans should press their leaders to maintain that responsibility.

“I think that as Jamaicans what we need to do is to press all of our political leaders to be responsible,” he said.

“At the end of the day we want a Government that does the right thing for Jamaica and that has a very responsible attitude because we have a long, long road left ahead of us. 132 per cent debt to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio is nothing to really talk about and we can just as easily make a mistake, the IMF walk away from us and we are in trouble again,” he said.

The EPOC, co-chaired by Byles alongside Bank of Jamaica Governor Brian Wynter, comprises representatives from the private and public sectors, civil society, and trade unions. The committee is mandated to review and monitor Jamaica’s economic reform and recovery programme over the life of the IMF’s US$958-million Extended Fund Facility.

Byles noted that the signing of the agreement in 2013 to enter negotiations to renew the borrowing relationship with the international lender came with conditions, resulting in constricted expenditure in some sectors.

He told his audience that many are still uncertain if the strategies for growth are working and that some potential investors will only take the plunge if they are convinced of economic recovery.

Byles said that among the reasons growth on the ground is not always evident is that outside of the tourism belt and areas with business process outsourcing operations it has been “microscopic”. Also, Jamaica has to contend with high debt that has accumulated over many years, he said.

Byles said that the severe period of drought last year hit the economy hard but the recent reduction in oil prices had brought relief.

He said he was driven by data and facts showing that recovery of the economy, though “tenuous”, is happening.

The EPOC co-chairman, who is also president and CEO of insurance giant Sagicor, said that in spite of the odds the private sector should not be hesitant to invest.

“Many Jamaican businesspeople want to see the economy recover before they invest in it. Business is about seeing the future before the future is part of the present,” he said.