The general assumption is that the economic reforms under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have started to correct our economic mismanagement and stabilise the economy. The next goal is sustained economic growth.

But the question is, can the Jamaican economy, which depends on foreign loans, foreign investment and remittances, achieve economic growth without a recovery of the global economy?

Our economic history suggests that growth only happens when there are favourable conditions in the world economy. Economic growth, up to the time of political independence, was largely dictated by external factors. The economy boomed when sugar prices were high and there was “gall and wormwood” when prices collapsed. After the banana export boom, the Great Depression and World War II severely retarded the economy. The halcyon days of economic growth in the 1960s were driven by the rapid expansion in exports of bauxite and alumina.

So the pertinent question is: Is the world economy in recession, depression or recovery?

An economic recession is a period of stagnating or declining economic activity. How long that period varies from one definition to another. In the US, a recession has occurred if there has been decline in Gross Domestic Product in two successive quarters. It is generally accepted that there have been four worldwide recessions since World War II in 1975, 1982, 1991, and late 2008.

An economic depression is a prolonged period in which all countries suffer substantial economic decline. The most noteworthy was the so called Great Depression, which started in 1929 with the crash on Wall Street and continued until the late 1930s.

The world economy is clearly not in a recession, and equally the recession which started in late 2008 is not over. There are signs of recovery, but growth is uneven and is slowing even in regions which were doing relatively well in recent years.

The centre of gravity of the global economy has shifted to Asia, but China’s unprecedented economic growth is slowing and that, in turn, is dampening growth in Latin America and Africa. US, Japan and Europe are all experiencing modest recoveries. Oil-exporting countries are slowing down following the fall in the price of oil.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook issued in April 2015 substantiates our analysis when it states: “Global growth remains moderate, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions. Relative to last year, the outlook for advanced economies is improving, while growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to be lower, primarily reflecting weaker prospects for some large emerging market economies and oil-exporting countries.”

The point to be emphasised is that some countries grew even in a global recession. Jamaica can and must become one of these, secure in the knowledge that there are always opportunities even in a global recession.