HEAD of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica Evan Thompson says, contrary to earlier reports, the hurricane season will not be excessively active.

“The National Hurricane Centre, which is where we take our official forecast from… isprojecting that we will have between 10 and 16 tropical storms this year, hurricanes anywhere between four and eight, and major hurricanes between one and four,” he said.

Thompson, who was addressing a press conference and prayer breakfast launch for Disaster Preparedness Month at Jamaica Pegasus yesterday, said the average season entails approximately 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The director also reiterated that there will be an increase in rainfall this season. According to Thompson, in June rainfall records will be close to the average, followed by a decline in July and August and then an increase during September and October — the months considered the primary rainfall season.

Meanwhile, Thompson said the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which started yesterday, will be close to average with regard to cyclone activity.

“The season is expected to be more active than we experienced last year; the conditions are a little bit more favourable,” Thompson said.

He explained that El Niño (a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with a global impact on weather patterns which has been causing the drought) is no longer a concern for the season and so it is expected that things are going to be a little bit more troublesome than it was last year.

The meteorologist explained that the change in cyclone activity are as a result of the change in the climatic conditions. He said the El Niño phenomenon, which has been plaguing the Pacific for some time is weakening, which in turn leads to an increase in rainfall — thus a greater chance of development of cyclone activity.

“The dissipation is also forecast to take place at the beginning of the hurricane season so between this month and next month we are expecting that we will have an actual full dissipation of that El Niño phenomenon moving to neutral conditions, where conditions are basically normal through that period of the year,” he explained. The La Nina (the opposite), he said, is also possible this year as it moves to the other side of the spectrum where the waters of the Eastern Pacific are cooler than normal and that is now being seen as it gets to the end of the hurricane season.

“Generally, the year after an El Niño produces significant rainfall, and so we can look forward to an increase in rainfall,” he added.

He urged persons to heed the warning of the Met Office and encouraged Jamaicans remain informed.

— Jediael Carter