In the wake of his rise to the helm of the People’s National Party (PNP) as its fifth president and Opposition leader, there has been a raft of speculations and quasi-political analysis on what the possible outcome of a general election would be between Dr Peter Phillips and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader Andrew Holness.

In fact I have been inundated with calls from political activists from both sides of the political divide (JLP and PNP), journalists, political and public affairs commentators, some curiously, whilst others, nervously soliciting my views.

To accurately assess the outcome of such face-off, a number of important variables will have to be considered.

The date of the next general election, the age of both Holness and Phillips, the marketing strategies of both political parties, the availability of financial resources, an effective enumeration programme, the strength of the parties’ bases, and effective communications on the air and on the ground are just some of the variables that will have to be considered.

The date when Holness calls the next general election will be a crucial factor in deciding the outcome of that election, bearing in mind that if the prime minister should decide to go to the polls on the constitutionally due date (2021), all things being equal, such as growth in the economy, crime and other social ills being brought under control, then that would raise the issue of the age factor since Phillips would be about 71 years, while Holness would be closer to age 50.

The question then would be whether Phillips would have the strength to survive the strains of a rigorous election campaign across the country against Holness, a much younger man.

Secondly, the JLP, as a matter of urgency, needs to reconnect with its base now and reach out to all stakeholders in its rank as well as to uncommitted voters, particularly the youth, who are disenchanted with the political process.

The days of rallying the troops and reaching out to voters at election time is redundant and will bear absolutely no political fruit for either party.

The JLP needs to get its political ‘war room’ up and running now to combat a reinvigorated PNP battalion. This can only be done by effective and constant ‘in your face’ communications and marketing.

The communication of the JLP’s policies and programmes can not only rest upon the leader and the party general secretary, but must include all ministers and those in officialdom within the party.

Credit must be given to Holness for his prolific and effective communication skills, which have certainly distinguished his leadership from all others in the JLP.

Holness’ hands-on non-confrontational and non-abrasive style since he assumed the reins of government in February 2016 has endeared many people to the party, especially the youth.

But Dr Phillips will be no walkover as he is a seasoned career politician who is well acquainted with the political tactics and machinations of campaigning. The PNP will need strong and forceful leadership in the west in the next general election to seriously challenge the JLP’s leadership on the ground there, led by party stalwarts such as Dr Horace Chang, JC Hutchinson, Charles Sinclair, Homer Davis and Floyd Green.

Now, the question is who will be the gatekeeper to preserve and secure their party’s political legacy in the west in a Holness/Phillips general election face-off?