JAMAICA’S Meteorological Service Division yesterday endorsed the updated August forecast of the Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which has predicted a much calmer season.

The updated forecast indicated a 90 per cent chance that the remainder of the 2018 hurricane season will be below or near-normal.

The Met Service, warned, however, that peak activity of the hurricane season occurs during the August to October period and emphasis should remain on preparedness regardless of the latest forecast for a less active season.

In May, the prediction was for a near or above-normal season but a less active season is now expected. The chance of a below-normal season has now increased to 60 per cent (up from 25 per cent in May), and the chance of an above-normal season has decreased to 10 per cent (down from 35 per cent in May). The chance of a near-normal season, meanwhile, has decreased to 30 per cent (down from 40 per cent in May).

The updated outlook calls for a 70 per cent probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

• 9-13 named storms (which includes the four named storms to date);

• 4-7 hurricanes (which includes the two hurricanes to date); and

• Up to two major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher.

Reasons given for a less active season were:

• Exceptionally cool sea surface temperature. These conditions are now much more likely to persist through the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season than some climatological models had previously predicted.

•. Models are projecting El Niño to become strong enough to help suppress the hurricane season.

• Several components of the atmospheric circulation patterns are not conducive to hurricane activity within the main development region such as, stronger vertical wind shear and trade winds, generally cooler and drier air, increased atmospheric stability, and anomalous sinking motion. These are expected to persist over the next several months.

Said the Met Service, “This outlook indicates, by way of probabilities, the likelihood of an above-normal, near-normal or below-normal season. A ‘normal’ season produces on average, 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes and three of which become hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes predicted are given as ranges for which there is a 70 per cent probability for each of the ranges provided.

“The outlook is produced from climate models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity and from the predictions of how large-scale climate factors, such as El Nino/La Nina, are expected to influence seasonal hurricane activity.

“Since no climate model or prediction of climate factors is accurate, the purpose of the outlook is to provide a general guide to the expected overall activity during the hurricane season.”

According to the Met Service, the outlook does not provide a prediction of the number of storms expected to make landfall over Jamaica nor any impact for any particular location on the island.

At the same time, it said whether the seasonal prediction is for above-normal or below-normal activity, a disaster can occur from only one hurricane or tropical storm, or even from a lesser developing system.

“Fishers and other marine operators are usually the first to be impacted by emerging weather systems at sea, so they are specially urged to be alert during this time of the year. Residents are advised to prepare for each hurricane season regardless of the seasonal forecast,” said the Met Service.