In Part 1 of this two-part piece, published on Tuesday August 25, 2020, I assessed the performance of the Andrew Holness Administration in relation to economic growth, crime management, corruption, law and order, and water supply, and showed that, with the exception of partial positive outcomes in relation to water supply in the Corporate Area, the performance of the Administration has been a dismal failure. My use of the word dismal is with unquestioned justification, given the following:

(1) On the economy, fiver per cent growth per annum was promised. The Government’s overall performance is 0.1 per cent, or a score of one out of 50.

(2) With respect to crime, despite billions on dollars in equipment and vehicles to the police, 12 states of emergency (SOEs), two zones of special operation (ZOSOs), and lots of promises, the prime minister has admitted that crime is bigger than he, and the outturn shows that during his tenure 1,609 more murders were committed than in the previous PNP Administration, with 6,268 between March 1, 2016 and August 24, 2020, compared to 4,659 between January 1, 2012 and February 28, 2016, an increase of 34 per cent.

(3) In relation to corruption, we have seen some $14 billion lost to corruption, with 12 of 14 government ministries, 90 per cent of them, involved in corruption.

(4) Lawlessness and disorder remain engrained as testimonies from several experts and observers have shown.

We continue the review:

Productivity and innovation

Productivity is measured by the increase in output from the same or less input. For example, if a worker in a factory produces 10 shirts per day, and with further training can produce 12 shirts per day, his or her productivity, assuming the same amount of the input and time, can increased 20 per cent. If, on the other hand, the same worker moves from 10 shirts per day to eight shirts, productivity has fallen by 20 per cent. Another example would be to look at the output of a company with X number of workers and compare the level of output with an increase or decrease in the number of workers. Let us say the same manufacturing company produces 100,000 shirts per year with workforce of 100 employees. The rate of individual productivity is 1,000 shirts per year. The firm later employs 20 more employees but still produces 100,000 shirts. This means the rate of individual productivity has fallen to 833.

This has been the case with Jamaica. The best measure of our productivity is our gross domestic product (GDP). Our GDP has been declining since 2017. In 2017, GDP was US$14.81 billion. It fell to $15.71 billion in 2018, and fell further to $15.46 billion in 2019. At the same time, the rate of unemployment has fallen from 11.63 per cent in 2017 to a record 8.4 per cent in 2018, and even further to 7.8 per cent in 2019. The fall from 11.3 per cent to 7.8 per cent is almost a 50 per cent decline.

Looking at the numbers in terms of people employed, the workforce was 1,216,200 in 2017 and fell marginally by 1,600 to 1,214,600 in 2018, but grew by 2.5 per cent, or 29,900, to 1,244,500 in 2019. Thus, while some 29,900 people were added to the workforce between 2018 and 2019, GDP fell from US$15.71 billion to $15.46 billion in 2019. This means that, despite record employment, we are less productive.

The clue for the fall in productivity is found in the fact that most of the new jobs created are in the category of ‘elementary’ jobs (car washers, gas station attendants, windscreen wipers, clerks), and not the innovation category. Thus, in relation to productivity and innovation, I give the Holness Administration a failing grade.

Quality of education

The Government’s performance in this area was offered by Prime Minister Holness himself, who proffered that schools are a little more than just “daycare centres”. While I do not agree with his characterisation, we can agree that a lot needs to be done about the quality of our education system. The demands are even greater in this COVID-19 era.

The last report of the National Education Inspectorate (2015) indicated that some 55 per cent were found to be ineffective. While the first set of inspections of the second round (which targeted 189, or about 20 per cent of schools) showed some improvement, the improvement was related to the schools inspected, not the entire sector.

What is even more troubling is that, although Holness was minister of education from September 2007 to December 2011, and again from March 2019 to June 2020; and, having been prime minister for half of that time, it was a mere few weeks before the calling of the general election that he established an Education Commission.

Thus, by the prime minister’s own words, and based on the data, the Holness Administration receives a failing grade in the area of education.

Health care

The measures of this area cover many aspects, too many to mention. Let us look at the rapid increase in the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The confirmed cases stand at 1,804 at the time of writing, and the number of new cases in the period August 19 – 26 being is 658, or an average daily rate of 82. This spike is related to the relaxing of restrictions during the holidays of early August.

Beyond COVID-19, we have the debacle at the Cornwall Regional Hospital, where patients sit on chairs for days waiting on a bed. We also have the situation of the decision of the Government not to have advised staff that pathogens had been found in sections of the building and, lastly, the fact that the completion of the renovation has missed one deadline after another.

In relation to the area of primary/preventive health care, the minister of health’s pet project, Jamaica Moves, must take centre stage. The evidence shows that after the first contract with the company Market Me, the National Contracts Commission was not satisfied that value for money had been received, yet the ministry sought to get the NCC to endorse the granting of a second contract. My critique of this project pre-dates the controversy which erupted recently over the contracts and related issues. In January this year I argued that, in the absence of clear performance targets in terms of numbers of people involved in specific kinds of exercise activities, as well as measures of reduction in behaviours which may be direct contributors of chronic conditions, Jamaica Moves is, at best, a public relations show.

We could also speak of waiting times at hospitals, staff morale, availability of drugs, and death of premature babies. All these areas show poor Government performance.

Taking all these factors into account, I give the Government a failing grade in the area of health care.

Minimum wage

Perhaps one the areas in which the Government could have scored an easy goal was in relation to its promise to double the minimum wage. The Government should have had the common sense to treat that promise as seriously as it did the $1.5-million tax break. I cannot help but wonder if the decision to abandon this promise was informed by the fact that only poor people to stood to benefit, as against the tax break, in which the middle class and wealthy stood to benefit. Whatever the reason, the Government failed to deliver in this vital area and gets a failing grade.

Regional and global reputation

While Jamaica continues to be admired regionally and globally because of the fame and performance of our athletes and artistes, as well as our patties and jerk pork, in the area of regional political leadership and a global presence we are the butt of crude jokes, derision, scorn, and suspicion. The prime minister is seen as a conduit of Trump’s foreign policy and does not command the respect of some counterparts in Caricom. Thus, in this area I give the Government a failing grade.

Dr Canute Thompson is chair of the People’s National Party’s Policy Commission, as well as a senior lecturer in educational policy, planning, and leadership at The University of the West Indies, Mona. He is also author of six books and several articles on leadership. Send comments to the Observer or canutethompson1@gmail.com.