IT could take up to three months of constant high numbers of COVID-19 cases, or increasing numbers, before the country sees a peak and eventual decline in the infection rate, the Government has warned.

Health and Wellness Minister Dr Christopher Tufton had announced last Friday that the country had reached the community transmission phase of the pandemic, which means that the virus is now at large, and tracking and tracing of the origins of transmission are significantly more difficult.

Yesterday, he stressed that this three-month pattern is dependent on the level of compliance by the population with the State-sanctioned prevention and control measures.

Dr Tufton was speaking at the first virtual press conference from Jamaica House called by Prime Minister Andrew Holness after he was sworn in as head of Government for a second-consecutive term at a ceremony at King’s House yesterday afternoon.

The prime minister announced revised curfew hours that will start from 8:00 pm today and end at 5:00 am daily until September 23. Gatherings have been reduced from 20 to 15 people until September 22, and funerals and parties prohibited, up to September 22. Churches, meanwhile, have been restricted to 15 congregants gathered outside the sanctuary, and burials restricted to 10 mourners, and another five allowed for the officiating ministers and funeral home workers.

Prime Minister Holness has also renewed the recommendation to businesses to prioritise work-from-home arrangements for employees, while citizens aged 70 and over are prohibited to leave home except for necessities, medical attention and exercise.

He stressed that the Government has opted to tighten the restriction measures instead of a lockdown of the country, which he said would have a devastating effect on the economy. However, he said, “a lockdown is not off the books”, warning that the appropriate response would be a lockdown if cases rise above Government’s projections. But he made it clear that such was not being considered at this time.

Since March when the first COVID-19 patient was recorded here, Jamaica has seen 3,183 cases up to yesterday. Eighty of those were recorded between Sunday and yesterday. Of the 3,183 patients, 974 have so far recovered from the disease, but another death recorded yesterday has brought the number of fatalities to 34.

Yesterday, Tufton advised that the ministry and its partners will, over the next week, roll out a series of new protocols that will govern community transmission.

“This phase comes with an adjustment in the approach towards testing and the protocols around the workplace. We are actively engaged in laying that out and will make that public to the country,” he said.

Additionally, he said a communication programme is to be implemented to outline the implications of community transmission, and the respective role of all stakeholders in combating further spread.

He reiterated that part of the approach to managing community transmission is guidance from the ministry to enable some patients to recover at home.

There are currently seven people in quarantine in a government facility and 26,533 in home quarantine.

According to Dr Tufton, with the virus now present across the population, the ministry will be taking a more strategic approach to testing. So far, 63,890 tests have been done, with 638 of those samples tested in the 24-hour period up to yesterday.

He also assured that there are enough ventilators across the public health system to address the current situation presented by the spike in cases, and that there is significant capacity in relation to the numbers of patients who need ventilators.