JAMAICA’S economy continued its recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn recording growth of 4.6 per cent in 2021 while employment levels rise to the second highest on record pushing the unemployment rate to historic lows of 6.2 per cent, but these failed to translate into improved confidence among consumers and businesses regarding their short-term outlook for the economy.

Pollster Don Anderson, in presenting the 2022 first quarter findings of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC) Business and Consumer Confidence survey released on Tuesday, said that since there were hardly any real changes in both indices, “the indications were generally good and the next quarter will determine whether the numbers are actually solid.”

He noted that while the averages continue to fluctuate as seen over the last few years, the current figures remain below that of pre-pandemic levels.

Consumer confidence, which significantly went up during the last quarter of 2021 following the busy Christmas period when it indexed 160, fell to 157 during the first quarter of 2022.

“The index of 157 during the first quarter of 2022 was close to the highest recorded since the onset of COVID in 2020. It should, however, be noted that prior to that period, consumer confidence was consistently strong since 2018, averaging 176 over the eight quarters between 2018 and the second quarter of 2020.

“We’re now at a 157, down slightly from 160 in the fourth quarter of 2021 but nowhere near the pre-COVID figures which averaged 176,” he said of the findings.

The data captured between January and March of this year were polled from a sample of 600 consumers and 120 firms islandwide and across industry types by Anderson through his company Market Research Services Limited.

The seasoned pollster, in assessing the data, said that the 1.9 per cent fall off in consumer confidence seen during the first quarter may be an indication that the economy still has some way to go despite sub-data findings which showed consumers being generally more optimistic about jobs, expected jobs and business conditions as virus rates trend downward, key industries record growth and things seemingly get back to normal. Just last week, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica released January labour figures showing 22,300 jobs being added to the economy in the previous three months covered by the data as employment levels reached 1,257,100.

Business confidence, which also slightly dipped, moved from 138 points to 131.1 during the first quarter of 2022 when compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.

“If we look across a five year period, business confidence has not really changed. Over the last five years, the trend in business confidence indicates a certain level of flatness which feeds into the notion that businesses tend to react in a more measured manner than consumers,” Anderson said.

The survey found that with businesses being more focused on getting the economy back on track as they move to recover fully, their expectations for the economy have generally remained stable though some level of uncertainty persists.

“Of importance was that a significantly large majority of firms said that they will survive the pandemic and will rebound in the shortest possible time,” Anderson also said regarding the general assessment of the larger body of data.

Citing the crime monster and some new levels of volatility in the environment including the Russia/Ukraine war and higher prices associated, he said businesses were, however, found to be moving along measured optimism.

Businessman Michael Ammar, commenting on the findings, said that while he was generally optimistic about the current business environment and happy about the government policies which have kept the economy going, the biggest inhibitor for him comes from the threat of the ongoing war in Europe.

“This will further disrupt the supply chain for commodities, even more than they’re disrupted and I think that could have a big impact on prices later on as we have just started to see the increases as a result of that,” he stated.

Locally, he, however, expressed hope for things to get better going into the summer period when large-scale entertainment events such as carnival, Sumfest, Dream Weekend and Emacipendence celebrations are expected to get underway.