BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Monday said as the Caribbean transitions out of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, it will have to deal with a very strong El Niño event that could, among other things, result in a potential expansion and or intensification of drought.

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication, covering the period November to January next year, CariCOF said also that the transition could also lead to fewer episodes of excessive heat, though unseasonably high temperatures for the cool season are very likely.

It said that there could be unusually low shower, wet spell and excessive rainfall frequency, except in the far northwest of the region; high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts remains across the region, with the possible exception of the ABC (Aruba, Bonnaire and Curacao) Islands and French Guiana.

In addition, the region is being warned of coral reef bleaching potential around The Bahamas and the Greater Antilles through December.

CariCOF said that dusty Saharan air intrustions, though not so frequent in this season, can temporarily exacerbate heat and deteriorate air quality while inhibiting intense shower activity.

It said that short-term drought has, as of October 1 this year, developed across the Antilles except south east Barbados, north east Dominica, Dominican Republic, north east Guadeloupe, north and west Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Trinidad, parts of the Bahamas, Belize, French Guiana, and Guyana.

Long-term drought is imminent in St Lucia, evolving in ABC Isands, Antigua, north and north west Bahamas, north Belize, United States Virgin Islands and and might at the end of November possibly develop or continue in Grand Cayman, Grenada, Martinique, St Vincent, Tobago.

CariCOF said that agricultural drought is evolving in northern Belize, Dominica, Martinique, and might possibly develop or continue in Antigua, eastern Jamaica, St Lucia, St Vincent and Tobago.