Jamaica had the highest murder rate in the Americas from 2020 to 2022, 30 per cent higher than ‘second-placed’ Honduras. Jamaica also has the region’s lowest crime victimisation (seven per cent) and fear factor (18 per cent) rates (Table 1). We are at once the bloodiest and ‘safest from crime’ country in our part of the world (Table 2).

How can this paradox make sense? For perspective I turned to former Commissioner of Police Owen Ellington, one of only two Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) heads since 1989 — Major General Antony Anderson is the other — who lowered the murder rate. Ellington was commissioner from November 2009 to June 2014. The 2009 murder rate was 63 per 100,000. The 2014 rate was 36, an unparalleled 41 per cent decline (Table 3). Surely no one has a better understanding of crime in Jamaica. (New Commissioner of Police Kevin Blake is his first cousin.)

Yes, we have the highest violent death rate of any country not at war; however, murders in Jamaica are extraordinarily concentrated in certain segments of society. Most murders are connected to connections and relationships, mostly to crime, but partly to domestic disputes. Jamaica has more of a violence problem than a crime problem. But the murder rate among those not connected to the crime milieu or embroiled in family disputes is relatively low. Yet all too often our disputes abruptly escalate from mild disagreements to stabbing and shooting. The greatest crime fear factor for most Jamaicans is not being an intended target but being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I don’t doubt the LAPOP data (Table2). Every country uses the same methodology. Anecdotal evidence also supports it. A few years back a popular ambassador who had served across Latin America told me Jamaica was the only country in the region where he and his family feel safe without a bodyguard.

Over 4 million people visit Jamaica each year. The visitor homicide rate is 2.3 per million, and overall crime rate is 26 per million. The overall US violent crime rate is 3,800 per million, making a mockery of the recent United States travel advisory.

Jamaican crime patterns certainly differ from the regional norm. Kidnapping and carjacking are common in most Latin American or even Third World countries but very infrequent here. We have low property crime rates and almost no social or political upheaval. Attacks on tourists are rare, even rarer on politicians. The last significant protest in Jamaica was the 1999 Gas Riots. Political violence has almost vanished. During the recent local government elections Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and People’s National Party (PNP) supporters were dancing together and sharing lunch. “Knock wood!” says my inner voice as I type. “Mind yuh goat mout wi!”

Serious crimes (murders, shootings, rapes, robberies, and break-ins) were down by 10.7 per cent in 2023, the lowest in 22 years. Recent trends are even more encouraging. Major crimes fell 19 per cent from 2019 to 2023. They are down 11 per cent year to date. Murders are down 14 per cent and rape has plummeted. (Tables 4 and 5)

The crime battle is slowly being won. But are Jamaicans feeling it? The most recent Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC) Don Anderson Consumer Survey showed 60 per cent expecting crime to worsen over the next 12 months despite the five-year downward trend.

Why is public sentiment at odds with the facts? The Jamaican media must take the blame. It is my view that they seem to highlight every crime-related negative but sparingly report good news.

The relationship between the JCF and the public has improved almost beyond belief. No longer are police seen as a colonial occupying force but partners in keeping the innocent safe. “We want justice” chants are heard no more. Its communication arm won a JCC award in 2023. I asked community activist Henley Morgan if the current rapport between the JCF and ordinary Jamaicans is the best in our history. He fully agreed. The outgoing commissioner has left a good legacy.

Many accuse politicians of protecting criminal dons who they use as election enforcers. Whatever the past reality, former Commissioner of Police Ellington has never encountered this: “We need to change these outdated narratives. This Government has overseen the most thoughtful programme of investment in upgrading and modernising the public security sector I have seen. For the first time ever the police force is at full complement. They have invested in modern technology and better equipment and police stations. The commissioner now has a capital budget, something unknown in my time. Our police force has never been more professional or better trained or had better resources and intelligence. Why would politicians sabotage their own efforts by protecting known killers?”

El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele’s “lock up all suspected criminals” approach produced a 90 per cent murder rate decline in that country. Yet Ellington believes Jamaica could achieve similar results without human rights violations with a “Bukele light” approach. He thinks Jamaica could reduce the annual murder count by 500, turn the current violent offences decline into an avalanche, and break the back of crime with a centre of gravity strategy.

Police recover 600-700 guns every year. But only about 100-200 guns are matches for violent crime scenes. It seems about 200-300 paid killers commit most of the over 1,000 murders every year. The 2010 and 2018 states of emergency (SOE) worked because police knew the serial murderers and restricted their freedom of movement and action for a few months. But blanket SOEs interfere with everyone’s freedom. I prefer more targeted efforts.

1) Deny identified serial killers freedom of movement and action. Withholding bail for gun offenders for six months would allow police time to test guns seized from them against the ballistic database. This will show where and when these guns were manufactured, when they first featured in a crime in Jamaica, how many crimes they featured in, and in how many different places. This can show the violent activities these gun offenders were involved in and why the public needs protection from them. Police can then correlate ballistic evidence with other scientific evidence, such as cell site data, closed-circuit television cameras, and GPS in cars they drive (usually rentals), and these kinds of scientific evidence should be considered by the court in dealing with matters of bail or sentencing.

2) Ensure all gun crime trials are completed within six months of arrest. These cases with scientific evidence are the easiest to prosecute. Most witnesses are police, who are duty-bound to come to court and less prone to intimidation than civilians.

3) Apply the full sentence to all found guilty. We must remove these dog-hearted killers from society.

4) Apply civil injunctions to remove from the streets known violence producers, like gang leaders, those not before the court because of ongoing investigations, or recently released from prison but assessed to be of high risk to their communities. Deny them access to criminal market spaces. These include market districts; commercial districts; bus parks; transport centres; construction sites; seaports; airports; and schools, where they peddle drugs or recruit for gangs.

Supplement banning orders with electronic bracelets and doorstep curfews. These are used in UK against football hooligans who are banned from games. During matches they have to remain at home with a landline and are called every 15 minutes. If they miss a call, police turn up at their doorsteps. These are football match troublemakers. We have serial killers and extortionists with multiple offences roaming free, and witnesses getting killed.

5) Expand capacity for expediting violent criminal trials: more judges working longer hours and more court sittings to speed up the process. After the 2010 London riots, buses were converted into courthouses and trials ran 24/7 to deal with looters and vandals. We average 1,500 murders a year and it’s business as usual!

The ball is in your court, Prime Minister Andrew Holness.

kob.chang@fontanapharmacy.com