There is increasing speculation in political circles about Prime Minister Andrew Holness’s next move following the resignation of yet another of the governing Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) sitting Members of Parliament (MPs).

This time it is the MP for St Ann North Eastern Marsha Smith who walked away from her role with immediate effect on Tuesday.

Smith, who was also serving as state minister in the Ministry of Education and Youth at the time of her resignation, leaves Fayval Williams on her own in one of the island’s most demanding ministries.

Smith resigned four years to the day after being elected in the 2020 General Election which the JLP won by a landslide.

“This is the clearest indication yet from the PM that Fayval is heading to the Ministry of Finance to replace Nigel Clarke when he packs his bags and heads to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) at the end of October,” said one political source late Tuesday.

“However, it could just be that the PM wants to bring someone from outside to finance. But with Matthew Samuda the clear successor to Smith in that St Ann constituency and Duane Smith announced as the successor to Nigel in St Andrew North Western, the only vacancy which a selected finance minister could fill would be Trelawny Southern where Marisa Dalrymple-Philibert resigned almost one year ago,” added the source.

According to the source, Holness is in the middle of a political chess game that, only when the end results are seen, will Jamaicans understand what he is doing.

“I would not be surprised to see Marsha back at the education ministry in short order, with a number of other changes, as the PM prepares a strong team for the post-Nigel period and the lead-up to the next general election, which though due by September next year will be called before that,” said the source.

Smith has been under pressure in the St Ann North Eastern seat for some time, with solid supporters of the JLP turning on her months after she crushed the People’s National Party’s Keith Brown by more than 4,000 votes in the 2020 General Election.

Labour Party supporters burnt shirts with her image and demonstrated outside her constituency office alleging that she was missing in action and was not doing a good job.

Earlier this year Smith was replaced as constituency chair by Senator Samuda, who has been active on the ground in recent months.

Samuda is expected to be the JLP’s standard-bearer in the constituency when the next election is held.

The speculation as to who will replace Clarke as the holder of the nation’s purse strings has been ongoing since last week when it was announced that he had been selected by the IMF to be one of its deputy managing directors.

At that time the Jamaica Observer reported that Williams, with her strong financial background, was tipped to replace him.

More than one week later there has been no update to the nation from Holness as to Clarke’s replacement, even though the release from the Office of the Prime Minister congratulating the finance minister last week indicated that a replacement had already been identified.

“The Observer already reported that Fayval is the favourite to replace Dr Clarke, and that remains the case, but do not be surprised if the PM pulls the proverbial rabbit out of the hat,” said a source close to the JLP late Tuesday evening.