With the US presidential election fast approaching, there is a buzz of anticipation to the finish line. For the twice-impeached, four times indicted, and convicted felon Donald J Trump and his opponent, former California state attorney general, US senator, and current Vice-President Kamala Devi Harris, this is a must-win contest.

Like him or not, the bombastic Trump commands a presence. Despite numerous affronts, innuendos, blatant acts of racism, and his failed record as president, he has managed to construct a coalition of race, age, and gender, along with a cadre of Republican politicians at all levels of the political spectrum and the big tech sector. See table: The Battle by Race…

Ignored is documentation of his mismanagement of COVID-19, the dislocation and inhumane treatment of migrant families, tax cuts to the wealthy, an unbeneficial trade war with China, the retraction of the Iranian uranium agreement, a betrayal of the Ghani regime, reversal of the Paris Climate agreement, and the oversight of the country’s largest deficit of US$7.8 trillion in four years. Not to mention his personal imperfections, among them criminal and sexual misconduct that belittles the office of the presidency and should serve as disqualification from public office.

In contrast, his popularity at 48 per cent nationwide is largely due to President Joe Biden’s inability to curb an unbearable 20 per cent hike in goods and commodities and the falsehood that he possesses the corrective prescription to reverse this excruciating affliction. Such is demonstrated by a statistical tie in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina and is also driven by instilling fear of the possibility of the installation of a leftist Government that is benevolent towards illegal immigration and oblivious to domestic and global security.

See table: A dead heat…

Harris likewise has her props. Surprisingly she has overcome an aborted Biden campaign, welcomed his endorsement and eluded a challenge in ascension to the altitude of the party nominee. Currently the black American woman of Indian and Jamaican descent is riding the waves of recognition with a national poll rating of 49.1 per cent to Trump’s 47.1 per cent and the unintended anointment by the Supreme Court that at the behest of Trump overturned the 1973 landmark decision in Roe v Wade. Such controversial pronouncement has giving her a platform to become the voice of scores of fiercely dissenting women in a country where 64 per cent of females are abortion sympathisers.

She has also gained notoriety from her connection to the middle and lower classes whom she assured to assist with affordable housing, capital to start businesses, and continued efforts to deliver enhanced health care. First-time home buyers, if eligible, will qualify for a US$10,000 tax credit with down payment support of up to US$50,000, prospective entrepreneurs of start-up businesses will be entitled to a US$50,000 tax deduction that increases the current tax deduction from $5,000 and, if she prevails, once the 48th president, her pursuits will entail access to a modified version of Affordable Care Act and reduced cost of prescription drugs.

In addition, the campaign touts the creation of over 15.7 million jobs of which 250,000 came on stream in the past month, a decrease in violent crime by 15 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 and the same in unemployment and inflation to 4.1 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively. In comparable fashion, the stock market’s S&P 500 Index rose by approximately 48 per cent since January 2021 and economic growth by 5.8 per cent in 2021, 1.9 per cent in 2022, and 2.5 per cent in 2023 — all realisations of the Biden/Harris Administration.

Other visible accomplishments include US$1.2 trillion Infrastructure Development Package, US$1.9 trillion COVID Response Relief Deal, the most substantial gun control legislation in nearly 30 years, and US$369 billion climate change investment.

Missing from the mounting list of accolades is a bipartisan migration Bill that was inevitable until the de facto Republican leader ordered his acolytes in the Senate to vote against it. This inconsistency would later become one of the strongest talking points for Team Harris.

Not to be overshadowed are the many endorsements by media houses, labour unions, celebrities, and at least 111 former Republican lawmakers and officials, many of whom served under the Republican nominee and deem him unfit to run for public office. His furtherance of a concept of a plan that encompasses a surge in tariffs or, in other words, an aggressive tax on American consumers, and mass deportation of over 13 million illegal immigrants would only serve to accelerate seeds of division and social chaos both at home and abroad.

Harris’s path to victory is, first and foremost, reliant on a strong voter turnout that rivals the 66.1 per cent of the most previous presidential election and a conquest in most of the swing states and beyond that could be a combination of the following:

Harris’s four clear routes to the White House (41 electoral college votes needed)

• Pennsylvania 10, Michigan 16, Wisconsin 10 = 46 electoral votes

• Arizona 11, Georgia 16, North Carolina 15 = 42 electoral votes

• Michigan 16, Wisconsin 10, Nevada 6, Colorado 10 = 41 electoral votes

• Florida 29, Pennsylvania 20, Michigan 16, Wisconsin 10 or Arizona or Georgia 15 = 49 – 59 electoral votes

The icing on the cake would most certainly be a win in Florida. There a backlash from a Haitian community, 500,000 strong, accompanied by well-wishers in search of retribution could result in transforming this red state blue, and in so doing evicting an remorseless Rick Scott from the Senate.

If credibility matters, Dr Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, DC, who has successfully predicted the last nine elections favours Harris. PredictIT, one of America’s most active political betting sites where data scientists the likes of Northwestern University’s Thomas Miller are of the opinion that the odds are far more reliable than polls reflect voter preference sharing comparable sentiments and so does the latter.

Although it is obvious from the details herein that America has reservations regarding the selection of a black female president, Trump’s MAGA agenda, which dates back to the stone age of realism and his opposition to constitutional norms that threaten the core of democracy is repulsive to the majority of the American electorate.

Barring a major mishap, come November 5 the despotic 78-year-old Trump will finally be undone and Kamala Harris will triumph in the majority of deciding states; namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and North Carolina, plus Florida, albeit by a slim margin, and will unquestionably become jointly the first California Democrat and black female president of the United States of America.

Leroy A Binns, PhD, is an adjunct senior lecturer in the Department of Government, The University of the West Indies (Western Jamaica Campus). Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or labenz@dr.com.

Leroy A Binns