Prior to the debate debacle that saw President Joe Biden fumbling his way through what should have been a slam dunk affair for him against former President Donald Trump who he had trounced decisively in 2020, this writer and many observers had begun to become disenchanted with what we perceived as the poor performance of Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Her ascent to that post as a black woman of Jamaican heritage (and Indian too!) had endeared her to us in the Diaspora and beyond, but somehow it did not appear to be cutting it.

Articulate, attractive, and assertive, the former ace prosecutor and Senator was seen by her many admirers as the next “big thing” to Barack Obama, who had previously broken the glass ceiling when it comes to ascending to the highest office in the United States. But there was much rumbling behind the scenes that she was not doing that well in the White House, to the extent that she was having rapid turnover among her personal staff, as it was being said that she was not easy to work with, among other concerns.

But fate stepped in, and when President Biden made that monumental decision to step aside and pass the baton to her, she emerged like a superwoman, taking the country by storm, bringing much joy and hope to a nation that has become increasingly disenchanted with the democratic process. Indeed, her electrifying presence on the electoral landscape threw Trump into a tizzy, as he felt that Biden would be a walkover at the polls. Politics is undoubtedly the art of the possible!

With roughly two weeks to go before millions of Americans go to the polls for that historic showdown, most, if not all, high profile polls have been predicting a neck-and-neck race down to the wire, with the battleground states likely to be the decisive factor. This is so because of the somewhat complicated American political system which sees the Electoral College being the most decisive factor, not just the popular vote. In fact, there have been instances when the candidate who won got fewer votes nationally, as was the case in 2016 when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.

For my Jamaican readers who may not fully understand how this works, the Electoral College consists of 538 electors. A majority of 270 electoral votes is required to elect the president and vice-president. It must be noted that the Electoral College is not a physical space but a process, as each state is allotted a certain number of votes. And if there is a tie, then the vote goes to the House of Representatives. In this vein, California (54), Texas (40), New York (28), and Pennsylvania (19) are among the heavyweights, but when it comes down to the wire, a state with a small number of votes, such as Nevada (6), can upset the applecart. In the meantime, the battleground states play a pivotal role, as these are regarded as swing states that a party, Democratic or Republican, has historically won by a narrow margin.

Interestingly, there are thousands of Jamaicans who will be voting in this crucial election but not all will be voting for Harris. In my recent visit to the United Sates, I was amazed to come across a number of Jamaicans who insisted that they would be voting for Trump because he has a better handle on immigration and the economy.

One complaint which stood out for these disgruntled Jamaicans is that the Democrats were treating illegal immigrants too good, putting them up in hotels and giving them pocket money while they had to come to America and work their way through the system, all the while paying a high price and facing many hardships.

There are also some Bible-thumping Christians who are anti-abortionists and anti-LGBTQ who revere Trump for his bellicose stance on these issues. However, these people appear to be in the minority, and from all indications, the vast majority of Jamaicans will be voting in droves for Harris!

Against this backdrop, the potent question is whether or not Kamala Harris “can cross it”. In other words: Is America ready for this woman of substance whose DNA may well have traces of our revered National Hero Nanny?

In my book, there are two major factors that may pose a serious challenge to her strutting into the White House as president in January 2025. Firstly, whether we want to face it or not, the United States is still a racist society. Supporters of MAGA (Make America Great Again) are primarily blue-eyed Anglo-Saxon Americans who fear that the country’s ethnicity is becoming too diverse and diluted even as demographically their kind is fast becoming the minority with the infusion of other races due to immigration. Secondly, America is a male-dominated society so many males, including black men, will be hesitant to vote for a woman. Only recently, former President Obama had to go on the hustings seeking to persuade his black brothers to give Sister Kamala a winning chance in the ballot box.

While in the very final analysis it may not matter to any Jamaican Government who sits at that hallowed desk in the Oval Office, if Trump becomes president, given his various pronouncements so far and his xenophobic stance, it may well be that a Harris presidency would be a blessing for her father’s homeland. From all indications, Trump’s policies relating to trade, immigration, and aid could spell doom and disaster for developing countries such as Jamaica.

Historically, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has been aligned to the Republican Party, while the People’s National Party (PNP) has been aligned to the Democratic Party. As this period of history unfolds, the likelihood of a Trump presidency, which may be fraught with fascism, authoritarianism, and various acts of vengeance and intimidation even while he cozies up to dictators such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and ostracises North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies, may well redefine the world geopolitically in an adverse way. In this vein, the USA’s political direction may pose a clear and present danger to world peace and prosperity.

For us, therefore, as a small developing State, a Harris presidency may well be the most desired outcome. God bless America!

Lloyd B Smith has been involved full-time in Jamaican media for the past 49 years. He has also served as a Member of Parliament and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. He hails from western Jamaica where he is popularly known as the Governor. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or lbsmith4@gmail.com.