AMID recent changes in a number of US policies following the return of President Donald Trump, Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) said it has taken note and will be monitoring developments to see how, if any at all, they will impact critical areas of trade, immigration and foreign aid for the country.

Director general of PIOJ Dr Wayne Henry, speaking at a quarterly briefing held at the agency’s offices this week, said that while it may be too early to determine these impacts, “as the precise nature and magnitude of these changes are still being announced/rolled out”, his entity will continue to monitor the developments, some of which he believes could significantly affect the country.

“Policies of the new US Administration may have a direct impact on Jamaica’s economy. For example, policies that influence household employment, incomes, and overall economic stability may affect the flow of remittances from the United States,” Henry said.

With remittances already facing a decline, growing at its slowest pace in the last few years, further disruptions to the island’s second-largest foreign exchange earner behind tourism will be very consequential. To make matters worse, the United States is the largest source of remittances to Jamaica.

“With respect to trade, the United States is Jamaica’s largest trading partner, and changes in trade policies will directly affect Jamaica’s economy. The potential imposition of tariffs would have an adverse impact on domestic inflation as well as Jamaica’s export performance, as competitiveness could be eroded,” Henry noted.

Among the growing list of items expected to face tariffs in the coming months are drugs and pharmaceuticals, lumber, aluminium, and several others. Through these tariffs the US Government said it expects to generate large revenues for the country. In an act of reciprocity, the US Administration said it will, however, offer countries a reprieve if they were to lower or remove their own tariffs on US goods.

Henry, further zooming in on a 90-day pause on all foreign aid, pending review following the issuance of an executive order by the president, said that this too carries grave implications for foreign development assistance — especially as some programmes implemented in Jamaica, mainly those reliant on these funds, may face significant shortfalls. A few local organisations have already been forced to consider their fate as they contemplate whether or not they will have to discontinue some important projects and programmes.

In 2023 the US, through its Agency for International Development (USAID), is said to have disbursed over US$70 billion in aid to more than 130 countries across the globe, providing funds to deal with countless global crises and emergencies in a number of social and economic areas.

Assessing other policy implications regarding immigration and climate change, the director general said these too could also blight progress for the global development agenda.

“Changes in US immigration policies will impact Jamaican citizens, especially those seeking to work, study, or live in the United States, as tighter controls reduce opportunities for locals. With respect to climate and health policies — the US’s withdrawal from international climate and health bodies and/or agreements [Paris Agreement and WHO] may also affect global initiatives that Jamaica participates in, potentially impacting environmental and health-related projects,” Henry stated.

“The planning institute will continue to closely monitor these developments and assess the likely effects on the economy as soon as the measures are fully implemented,” he, however, said.