Dear Editor,

In 2017/2018, there were fears of a trade war between the United States and China. There was an even greater fear of a global recession. Fortunately, the trade war wasn’t full-blown and the recession didn’t materialise. However, to this day I am disappointed that at the academic institution where I worked, neither the business office nor the College of Business felt it necessary to explain to the workforce what a recession is, what to expect, and how to cope.

I say this against the background that in the previous recessionary period — 2007-2009 — it was not done. And l’ve heard members of the workforce talk nonsense about enrolment in that very period. Most people in an academic institution are not business-oriented; therefore, individuals who specialise in that area should help the rest of us navigate the shoals of a recession and explain terms like tariff, inflation, and stagflation.

What I say about academic institutions is relevant to all workplaces. Financial literacy in Jamaica is low and so this information is critical. However, the discussion in academic institutions is centred around methodology, course outlines, and lesson plans without any care about how employees cope with the economic stresses of life. In short, how the employees live.

Recently, there was discussion on whether Jamaica was in a recession post-Q4 of 2024. Prime Minister Andrew Holness declared that we were not in a recession. A friend asked my opinion on the matter. I told her that l preferred to do some research before attempting an answer.

My conclusion is that the prime minister and the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) were correct. Jamaica was not in a recession. Or, if you want to split hairs, we were in a technical recession or a textbook recession if you go by the traditional definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, more variables like the unemployment rate, wage growth, consumer and corporate spending have to be factored in.

When one takes into consideration our unemployment figures (3.5 per cent) and the spending in November, by no stretch of the imagination could Jamaica have been in a recession. Spending in November 2024 reached a record near $43 billion, 13.1 per cent above that of November 2023, and inflation was 5.0 per cent in December, well within the targeted range of 4 per cent to 6 per cent.

The growth figures for 2024 are as follows: Q1:1.4 per cent, Q2: 0.2 per cent, Q3: -2.7 per cent, Q4: – 0.8 per cent. Definitely nothing to write home about, but things could have been far worse. The Government has projected growth in 2025 to be a miserly 1 per cent. Of course, I would prefer our growth projections to be at 2.5 per cent. Let’s not talk about 5 per cent though. Not with the literacy issues that we have, not with public transportation in the state that it is, and not with our intractable crime problem.

This brings me to the buzzword, “tariff”. I believe that the employers owe it to employees to explain what it is and the effect on consumers. A tariff is a tax which is going to cause households in the United States to spend between US$3,500 and US$4,500 more this year.

Many voters in the US did not do their due diligence. Donald Trump did not hide his fascination with tariffs. Higher tariffs and lower inflation don’t belong in the same sentence; it’s just not feasible, yet people cheered such pronouncements at Trump rallies.

At a party conference in St Elizabeth South Eastern, the Opposition spokesman on agriculture also announced his fascination with tariffs on imported food, and the people cheered. The party should have been educating its members on the effect of tariffs instead of going down that route.

As a consumer I’m not in favour of increased tariffs on imported vegetables. In fact, I’m in favour of zero tariffs on imported fruits and vegetables. We might not be able to do so now, but I’m definitely in favour of the importation of tomatoes and onions, for instance during periods of shortage. Why should we be charged upwards of $600 for a pound of plummy tomatoes? It is the role of Government to ensure that consumers get an ample supply of vegetables at reasonable cost throughout the year, and people who jack up the price of imported vegetables should be dealt with severely.

I agree with Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky: “Tariffs are a terrible mistake. They don’t work. They will lead to higher prices. They’re a tax and they have historically been bad for our economy.”

Norman W M Thompson

norms74160@gmail.com