ENSO conditions may give rise to intense first half of 2025 hurricane season
BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Monday said that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions could result in an intense first half of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with a likely number of named storms between three and 10 in this period.
The six-month hurricane season began on June 1.
ENSO is a recurring climate pattern that significantly impacts global weather, primarily through changes in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The warming phase is known as El Niño, and the cooling phase as La Niña. ENSO influences rainfall, temperature and wind patterns worldwide.
In its latest edition of Caribbean Climate Outlooks, CariCOF said that the ENSO neutral conditions in the Pacific, combined with unusually warm waters around the Caribbean and temporarily cooler waters in the eastern Tropical North Atlantic could also imply a Caribbean heat season with the possibility of heatwaves gradually ramping up but unlikely to match 2023 and 2024.
It said that rainfall intensity and shower frequency should rise, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.
“Forecasts of Saharan dust intrusions only show useful skill up to one or two weeks ahead,” CariCOF said, noting “Historically, such episodes tend to be frequent through August and tend to produce spells of hot and humid conditions with reduced air quality, all the while stifling intense shower and tropical cyclone activity.”
CariCOF said that rainfall totals from June to August are forecast to be the “usual or higher” in Cuba, Guyana, Hispaniola and the United States Caribbean territories, but the usual or less in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, the Cayman Islands, Trinidad and Tobago and the Windward Islands (Dominica, Grenada, St Lucia and St Vincent and the Grenadines).
CariCOF said that as of May 1, severe or worse short-term drought has developed in the Northwestern Bahamas, with moderate drought in southwest Belize, northern Dominican Republic, southwest Jamaica, St-Barts, the north coast of Suriname, and northwest Trinidad.
It said long-term drought might possibly develop in the Northern Bahamas by the end of November 25 this year.
