Stability and continuity of the economic and social gains, especially over the last 9½ years — plus credible and fundable commitments to radical and simultaneously practical innovations that will be implemented in a timely and effective manner to materially benefit the majority in a sustained fashion — are some of the crucial considerations which must be uppermost in the minds of all well-thinking Jamaicans as we head to the polling booth.

Which of the two major political parties can best shepherd policies and programmes to facilitate meaningful economic growth and development? And what is the record and reputation of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) versus the People’s National Party (PNP) in said facilitation and provision, that is the spearheading and delivery of tangible benefits that have made the lives of especially ordinary Jamaicans materially better?

Every well-thinking Jamaican needs to carefully ascertain informed and honest answers to these questions before we mark an ‘X’ in the upcoming 19th parliamentary election since universal adult suffrage in 1944. Our future, Jamaica’s, is at stake.

FOUNDATIONAL RELEVANCE

Benjamin Disraeli, who many political scholars agree was the Father of Modern British Conservatism, famously said: “Without party, parliamentary government is impossible.” I agree.

We cannot sidestep the huge relevance of our two major political parties in the modus operandi of our daily social, economic and political affairs. Max Weber, renowned German sociologist, historian and jurist who, among other things, studied the relationship between religion and capitalism, and developed a method of interpretive sociology, did seminal work on the relevance of political parties and democracies.

Weber said: “Parties exist in a house of power.” Weber and Disraeli, in essence, brilliantly summarised the competition evident and also necessary in executive systems like Jamaica’s and other functional liberal democracies. Parties compete to gain executive leadership. When they win executive power political parties determine the direction of the country and, by extension, the country’s future. The actions or inactions of political parties that gain executive power directly affect the quality of life of especially the majority in decided ways daily; for example, our ability to feed our families, send our children to school, pay bills, buy a car/house, etc.

Concerning our politics the “mi nuh able” posture is not safe or sensible. To sit on our verandahs, in our living rooms, in bars, and/or in other social and religious sanctuaries and romanticise, encourage, preach divorcement from voting in elections is self-defeating. No well-thinking Jamaican must exclude him/herself from the critical democratic process of selecting which party manages our country’s affairs. When we do so we leave our futures in the hands of those who will gladly sell their votes and our country’s future for a mess of pottage and/or worse.

We have seen that movie before. We all got nightmares after. Believe it, Jamaica is at a crossroads. It is not just our responsibility, is it our duty to vote — rain or shine — on election day.

I will be one of the first at the polling station, God willing.

Max Weber examines the huge relevance of political parties in The Theory of Social and Economic Organization and Politics as a Vocation.

THE MOST MENACING

In my The Agenda piece on June 8, 2025, entitled ‘The real situation… PNP using failed hollering tactics to distract from achievements’, I noted that: “When an Opposition is nearing a national election and finds itself facing the achievements which the Administration has put on the board, and also finds itself lagging behind in the polls, it has five possible recourses. I will talk about three and leave the other two, which are particularly menacing, for another piece.”

Recall in that piece I explained these three tactics — hollerings about corruption, orchestrated foreign press intervention/interference, and the turning on of the searchlight on an incumbent’s record of recent taxation. I noted that those three traditional tactics were duds with respect to this Andrew Holness-led Administration.

Last Sunday, I explained tactic #4 — the awful use/results of violence and sabotage leading up to and on election day. Here is tactic # 5, the most menacing: Refusal to accept the general election result, followed by the deliberate fomenting of widespread dislocation which then graduates quickly into violent street demonstrations and/or worst.

“This could never, ever happen here, Higgins,” some will say.

Really?!

There is ample evidence of men and women lying, stealing, and committing murder to facilitate the acquisition of and/or retention of State power in this country. Listen, when some see their political careers crashing with quite possibly no hope of recovery they will do anything to save their skins.

In my The Agenda piece of March 10, 2024 I made reference to, among other things, Tyranny of the Minority: How American Democracy Came to the Breaking Point. In this celebrated work, Harvard professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, reiterated these settled social science metrics: “Parties which are committed to democracy must do three things: First of all they must unambiguously accept the result of elections were they to lose. Second, must unambiguously reject the use of violence. And third, must break completely from anti-democratic extremists.”

We have seen in the past where some who hankered after State power thumbed their noses at the mentioned metrics. In recent times we have also heard utterances and seen actions of some, who display a frightening lust for State power, show open contempt and disrespect for the three metrics mentioned.

I have been alerting about the resurrection of political ghosts and their terrible implications for the future of our country in this space for many months. “Cyaan say mi never did a warn yuh, oh Lord mi tell yuh,” those are the opening lines from a hit song called
Tempo that was massively popular locally and internationally in the 1980s by dancehall artiste Anthony Red Rose. I pray that my warnings come to naught. But while we pray we must always be putting comprehensive measures in place to avert catastrophes. The avoidance of catastrophes as far as is humanly possible is one of the benchmarks of a self-respecting society. I contend that those of us who have the knowledge have not only a responsibility but a duty to warn when we see the frightening political storm clouds which have resulted in severe damage and destruction, especially to human life, in the past, gathering on the horizons in the present. It’s the absolute right thing to do.

FORECASTS AND FORECASTS

At the start of this month I began presenting forecasts on which of our two major political parties I anticipate will win the lion’s share of 19 marginal seats. And last week I started presenting forecasts on which party I estimate will win most seats in the Corporate Area (Kingston and St Andrew).

What of the other seats that are outside the Corporate Area and are not in the 19 marginals? Again, these forecasts are based on recent credible poll findings, plus previously stated metrics.

* St Thomas Western will stay in the JLP column. In the 2020 General Election James Robertson received 8,299 votes to defeat the PNP’s Marsha Francis, who got 5,423. Robertson, the Member of Parliament (MP), has been very visible in all the divisions. He has done some good work regarding the social and infrastructural growth and development of the constituency. I forecast that Robertson is on his way back to Gordon House.

* Portland Western: I forecast that Daryl Vaz will increase his margin of victory in the upcoming election. In 2020 Vaz amassed 6,416 to Valerie Neita-Robertson’s 4,037. Vaz is adept at retail politics. He is respected by PNP and JLP voters alike. He has done some very good work that has materially benefited his constituents. He has a very favourable national presence. There is talk that the upcoming general election may well be Vaz’s last political rodeo. If the upcoming election is in fact Vaz’s last, it could well influence voters who are ailing with the ‘him/she win already syndrome’ to get up and go out and vote as a mark of respect and gratitude for Vaz’s many years of service.

* Clarendon South Western will stay orange. In 2020 Lothan Cousins of the PNP got 6,669 to defeat Kent Gammon of the JLP, who received 4,602. Cousins, has created a good foothold in the constituency. He is very visible in many parts of the constituency and has done a tidy bit of social and infrastructural development. His margin of victory will increase slightly from 2020, I forecast. He is on his way back to Parliament for another term.

* Clarendon South Eastern will stay green. In 2020, MP Pearnel Charles Jr got 10,219 votes to defeat the PNP’s Patricia Duncan-Sutherland. She got 7,275 votes. I forecast that Charles Jr will deliver another knockout punch in the upcoming plebiscite. Like Vaz, he is good at retail politics. He has done good work to materially benefit the constituency and he has a national presence as a Cabinet minister who is producing admirable results.

* Clarendon North Central will remain in the JLP winning column. MP Robert Morgan needs to do some pavement pounding, particularly small group meetings in Mocho and Rock River. Morgan has done some good social and infrastructural work in the constituency, particularly in Chapelton. He is liked especially by the middle-aged and older voters and has a national presence as minister with responsibility for works. I forecast he will win.

* Clarendon Central is the stomping ground of veteran politician Lester Mike Henry. In 2020, Henry got 6,745 votes to Zuleika Jess’s 3,742. Delroy Williams has been knocking on doors and simultaneously mending fences. He will benefit from Henry’s great legacy. He would do well to build on Henry’s legacy. I forecast a win for the JLP.

* St Ann North Eastern has had some political turbulence in recent times. I have been told that those issues are “sealed and settled”. In the 2020 General Election the JLP’s Marsha Smith polled 9,059 votes and Keith Brown of the PNP received 4,887. Smith was chosen to run because long-serving MP and Cabinet Minister Shahine Robinson had died in May 2020 after a prolonged illness.

Recall Robinson served as minister of state in the Office of the Prime Minister with responsibility for the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) from September 2007 – July 2011. She also served as minister of state with responsibility for local government, and minister of transport and works. She was appointed minister of labour and social security in March 2016. In early September 2024 Smith, who was serving as minister of state in the Ministry of Education and Youth, resigned.

Matthew Samuda of the JLP convincingly won a by-election held on September 30, 2024. He has done a tremendous amount of work since winning. I forecast a fairly comfortable victory for the JLP.

* St Ann North Western: MP Krystal Lee beat Dr Dayton Campbell in 2020 when she polled 7,821 to Dr Campbell’s 5,783. This seat has been won far more times by the PNP than the JLP since 1944. Lee has been doing a creditable job, especially with respect to the provision of roads and water since 2020. She has a tough fight on her hands, though. The PNP’s standard-bearer has been pounding the pavement relentlessly. Lee has some more work to do in Brown’s Town, Bamboo, and Dry Harbour. This is too close to call at this time.

* St Ann South Western: Zavia Mayne decisively defeated PNP political journeyman Valenton Wint in 2020. Ponder this: “In a political career spanning 15 years, Valenton “Val” Wint has thrice contested parliamentary elections on behalf of the PNP… He lost each time.” (Jamaica Observer, July 25, 2021) Voter turnout in Borobridge, Gibraltar, and Calderwood are crucial to the outcome in this seat. This is too close to call at this time.

VAZ… should increase his margin (Photo: Garfield Robinson)

COUSINS… will stay in his seat

CHARLES JR… producing admirable results.

MORGAN… should keep the seat greenPhoto: Llewellyn Wynter

WILLIAMS… will do well to build on Mike Henry’s legacy

SAMUDA… a fairly comfortable victory here (Photo: Joseph Wellington)

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com