Two companies taking bets on the September 3 General Election say thousands of wagers have already been received.

At the same time, one of them believes its betting data could be used to predict which political party will form Jamaica’s next Government.

The confidence expressed by CEO and co-founder of Island Bet, Adam Epstein, is spawned from his claim that the party that was the favourite to win in the last two general elections did, in fact, emerge victorious.

As such, Epstein said data collected by his company could be considered a true poll, because customers are placing money behind their opinion, as opposed to traditional polls that may not reflect an individual’s true thoughts.

Epstein told the Jamaica Observer that since going live with the option for people to bet on who will win the upcoming general election, the response has been strong, with thousands already placing bets. The bets placed on the People’s National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have been fairly equal, he disclosed.

“I truly believe that our analytics, as well as the customers generating a market, determine a real, true poll of who will win the election outright, and which candidates will win different constituencies. I’m of the opinion that pollsters are usually one-sided, there’s no true middle ground pollster,” said Epstein.

“…This is determined, of course, by the market itself, because once we release our opening lines — lines change daily because the market determines [these] — it’s the same thing as asking a person, ‘Who do you think will win the seat?’ but, instead, they’re using their money to do it so they’re giving a true, honest opinion of what they believe. In my eyes, it’s a true poll.

“If the powers that be follow our lines, I think you’ll see a true picture of what the possibilities are,” the Island Bet CEO told the Sunday Observer.

Stefan Miller, acting CEO of Supreme Ventures Gaming — which has its betting product under the brand JustBet — said that company has also been getting positive reception ahead of the upcoming election, adding that interest and engagement in election betting have already surpassed the levels seen in 2020, when the company first introduced the category for that general election.

Meanwhile, Epstein shared that Island Bet first launched election betting for the 2016 General Election and again for the 2020 poll. He said, in both instances the political party and parliamentarians who received the most bets to win were the victors when the results were announced after the ballots had been counted.

While he could not recall the highest bet made over the last two general elections, he shared that the highest payout was US$65,000 or around $9 million back in 2016. The bet, he recalled, was one of the first 10 to be placed.

“This is our third year, but every year we’ve done it the markets, the bettors, the punters, have all been, I would say, more correct, which is why we have to update our odds so often because when the majority of the public speaks, obviously, it’s a true democracy.

“The majority of the public speaks for us in terms of betting, so we’re seeing true, real data with people using their own money and not just their opinion,” insisted Epstein.

He noted that election betting is common in countries like the United States and England, with individuals not just placing wagers on who will win the election or different seats, but also who will be appointed ministers, governors, or members of the Senate. He said the company in 2016 decided to give Jamaicans a piece of the action.

The bets for the 2025 General Election are already rolling in, said Epstein.

“We’ve seen quite a substantial amount of people registering with our company as new customers, and we’ve seen old customers reactivate their accounts and start betting. We’ve seen current customers, loyal customers, start placing their bets as well. We’re seeing quite a lot so far. I mean, the last time I checked, it’s probably over a thousand people have placed a bet so far,” he told the Sunday Observer.

In addition to choosing the party they think will win, Jamaicans, through Island Bet, can wager on how many seats each party will win. Additionally, bets can be placed on 30 constituencies that the betting company has singled out as battleground or swing seats.

These include St Mary South Eastern and Western, all three Westmoreland seats, St Elizabeth South Eastern and South Western, St James Central and Southern, Trelawny Northern, St Catherine Eastern, St Catherine North Central, St Catherine South Central, St Catherine East Central, and St Catherine South Eastern.

Additionally, St Elizabeth North Eastern, Kingston Central, Hanover Eastern, Portland Eastern, St Andrew East Rural, Eastern and West Rural, as well as Manchester Central, Southern, and others have been listed.

The cut-off time to place bets is midnight on September 2.

“The majority of our bets so far have been on the constituency head-to-head betting. We’ve seen a few on either party; no one party is more than the other,” said Epstein.

He added that Island Bet is also considering prop bets, such as whether it will rain on election day, which will follow soon.

“The truth is, we’re lucky enough to live in a democratic country and your vote is your choice, and I’m simply providing a way to vote, bet, and win on your own choice,” he reasoned.

In the meantime, Miller said the most popular bet for JustBet is which party will win the general election.

“They can also bet on whether the PNP will win over or under 30 seats and whether the JLP will win over or under 32 seats. The options for this category is based on the latest Don Anderson poll results,” Miller told the
Sunday Observer in an e-mailed response.

While he could not give an exact figure as to the number of bets that have so far been placed for the upcoming election, he said hundreds of bets have been received. The bets range from hundreds to thousands of dollars, he added.

Similar to Island Bet, Miller said Supreme Ventures launched the election category based on customer interest and demand.

“The 2020 elections were the first time we offered the category. We received positive feedback from our customers then, so we’ve brought back the option for this year’s election,” he said.

“In fact, we’re seeing even more interest and engagement around the bet when compared to the 2020 [General] Election,” he added.

Jamaicans can place their bets in store at Supreme Ventures outlets islandwide or online at supremegames.com through JustBet Mobile on SV Games. Bets can be placed up to midnight on September 2.

Jamaicans will go to the polls to vote in the 2025 General Election on September 3. A total of 189 candidates have been nominated to contest the election. The two main political parties — the JLP and the PNP — have each nominated 63 candidates.

The Jamaica Progressive Party (JPP) has candidates in 47 constituencies, while the United Independents’ Congress (UIC) has put forward seven candidates. Additionally, nine independent candidates will contest seats in constituencies across St Thomas, St James, Hanover, Westmoreland, St Catherine, and St Andrew.

MILLER…we’re seeing even more interest and engagement around the bet now when compared to the 2020 General Election

The highest payout from Island Bet for the Jamaica General Election was US$65,000 or around $9 million back in 2016. (Photo: Naphtali Junior)

EPSTEIN.. our analytics, as well as the customers generating a market, determine a real, true poll of who will win the election outright and which candidates will win different constituencies