MELISSA’S destructive path across the Caribbean could deal Jamaica one of its largest economic blows in modern history, with early models suggesting losses of up to US$14 billion — an amount equivalent to nearly three-quarters of the island’s annual economic output.

The Category Five storm, which slowly intensified before approaching Jamaica’s southern coast, has top winds of 160 miles per hour and is forecast to dump as much as 30 inches of rain in some areas. Disaster modeler Chuck Watson of Enki Research estimates Jamaica’s potential economic losses could reach US$14 billion, with another US$5 billion in Cuba when the storm makes landfall there later this week.

If realised, the impact would dwarf that of Hurricane Ivan in 2004, which caused about US$580 million in damage — roughly 8 per cent of gross domestic product at the time. Today, Jamaica’s economy is valued around US$19.9 billion, according to World Bank data, putting in focus the scale of exposure to a single weather event.

Jamaica’s tourism sector, which accounts for nearly a third of national output when indirect spending is included, has come to a standstill. All three international airports — Norman Manley, Sangster, and Ian Fleming — have been closed, and there are plans in place for hotels to relocate guests as part of coordinated safety measures.

Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett says the ministry has been in continuous communication with airlines and operators.

“I wish to assure our international partners, the trade, and the global press that the Government and the Ministry of Tourism, in close collaboration with the Jamaica Tourist Board and our industry partners, has been fully mobilised to safeguard the well-being of our visitors and tourism workers,” Bartlett said on Sunday.

But the closure of ports and airports means a temporary halt in visitor arrivals and a potential multi-million-dollar hit to foreign exchange inflows. Even a few days of cancellations can have ripple effects on the sector.

In the agricultural belt, farmers were urged to harvest crops before the storm’s arrival — a precaution that hints at the scale of losses to come. Heavy rainfall and landslides are expected to devastate low-lying farmlands, particularly in the parishes of Clarendon, St Elizabeth, and Westmoreland.

The agriculture sector’s vulnerability was evident last year when Hurricane Beryl caused estimated losses of $4.7 billion, primarily from flooding and wind damage. A repeat or worse outcome under Melissa could deepen supply chain pressures and push food prices higher into the Christmas quarter.

Manufacturers and distributors are also likely to face production downtime as utilities go offline and transport routes are cut off.

Telecoms provider Flow Jamaica has said it will conduct damage assessments within 36 to 48 hours after the storm’s passage, while electricity company Jamaica Public Service (JPS) has pre-positioned crews for emergency repairs.

By mid-day Monday, some 55,000 households were said to be without electricity as conditions slowly worsened.

Meanwhile, on the fiscal side, Economist Dr Adrian Stokes told the Jamaica Observer that it would be too early to comment, but there are warnings from international observers that the consequences could be severe if reconstruction costs approach even a fraction of the projected total.

While Jamaica is covered by the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), payouts from the regional pool typically cover only a small portion of total losses. Broader rebuilding efforts often depend on multilateral loans and grants.

The storm’s slow crawl across the island, combined with its intensity, means rainfall and flooding will linger for days — increasing the risk of landslides and prolonged business disruption.

— Karena Bennett