THE cold front that impacted Jamaica earlier this month saw temperatures dip to as low as 12 degrees Celsius, with sections of Manchester recording the lowest readings across the island.

However, despite the unusually cool start to 2026, executive director of The University of the West Indies’, Mona GeoInformatics Institute, Luke Buchanan, has cautioned that Jamaica is likely to experience extremely hot and humid conditions this summer — a sharp contrast to the chilly opening weeks of the year.

A cold front is the leading edge of a mass of cold air that is moving in to replace warmer air. When the colder, denser air pushes underneath the warmer air, it forces the warm air to rise. As that warm air rises, it cools and can form clouds and sometimes rain.

Cold fronts in Jamaica typically move down from North America during the winter months, resulting in noticeable drops in temperature, especially in elevated areas.

Buchanan shared that areas such as Coleyville and Christiana in Manchester, experienced low temperatures between 12 and 14 degrees Celsius, while some areas in Clarendon experienced temperatures as low as 13 degrees Celsius.

Additionally, areas around the Cockpit Country in Trelawny and St James experienced temperatures as low as 15 to 16 degrees Celsius, with other western parishes ranging between 15 and 20 degrees Celsius.

Above Rocks in St Catherine dipped to around 17 degrees Celsius, with some areas of Kingston as low as 20 to 21 degrees, said Buchanan.

He noted that the temperatures recorded earlier this year were colder than previous years, but not the lowest on record. According to Buchanan, it is possible that Jamaica could see cooler temperatures in the future.

“Based on the research I’ve done for certain peaks and certain elevations in Jamaica, it’s quite possible…I’ve seen where the areas in the Blue Mountain actually came close to one degree Celsius in the past, but when we talk about impact, we’re talking about people. If there’s nobody living there, residing there, then we can’t really talk about the impact, but it is possible,” he told the Jamaica Observer.

He referenced the recent cold snap in Cuba, noting that the island’s close proximity to Florida makes it more susceptible to strong cold fronts moving south from North America. Cuba, geographically located near Florida, experienced a significant dip in temperatures, recording its first-ever freezing temperature of zero degree Celsius in Matanzas province on February 3 — surpassing its previous record low of 0.6 degrees Celsius set in 1996.

Buchanan explained that, given Jamaica’s closeness to Florida, similar temperature fluctuations are possible locally when powerful cold fronts move farther into the Caribbean.

“If things should get colder, then those temperatures can definitely reach Jamaica, definitely the north coast of Jamaica, which is directly south of Florida,” he told the Sunday Observer.

He, however, expressed scepticism at the possibility of snow in Jamaica, noting that while there have been reports of frosting in the Blue Mountains, the likelihood of snow in Jamaica is low.

“For snow to occur in Jamaica, temperatures would need to drop to the freezing point (0°C or 32°F), and we are simply not experiencing those conditions. Additionally, Jamaica is not structurally prepared for snowfall. Our infrastructure was not designed to withstand such weather. In regions where snow is common, buildings require significant insulation, and roads and utilities are constructed to manage freezing temperatures, features that are generally absent in Jamaica,” he said.

Highlighting the two sides to climate change, he said while cooler temperatures are possible, higher temperatures — especially during the summer — are also a reality.

“For the period 2026 to 2030, projections indicate there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year during that period could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperature levels. The pre-industrial average global temperature refers to the Earth’s average surface temperature during the period 1850–1900, which is commonly used as the baseline in climate science.

“When scientists say the world has warmed by 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, they mean that the global average temperature would be roughly 15.2 to 15.5 degrees Celsius. For Jamaica, this would mean more intense heat than we have ever experienced before, stronger hurricanes, heavier rainfall, sea-level rise, more coral reef loss, more droughts, negative impacts on economic and social development,” said Buchanan.

The executive director shared that a partnership currently exists with the United Nations Development Programme to implement a project that looks at nature-based solutions for increased temperatures and how more trees can be integrated into existing infrastructure.

“Those areas that are already covered in concrete, we are going to look at mechanisms for implementing trees, so kind of the greening of the city, and we are looking at examples from across the world and what other countries would have done to kind of battle microclimates.

“You have the urban impact where, because of the massive grey infrastructure — that’s concrete developments — then it’s significantly hotter in these urban areas, so what we want to do is to basically break up the concrete. Not physically break up in that aggressive way, but to basically implement green infrastructure trees within certain areas. That has been very successful in several parts of the world, and we want to bring that to Jamaica to kind of manage the warmer temperatures,” Buchanan said.

BUCHANAN…I’ve seen where the areas in the Blue Mountain actually came close to one degree Celsius in the past