KINGSTON, Jamaica — The Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA) is encouraging farmers across the island to prepare their operations for varying weather conditions expected over the next five months.

With the transition from the La Niña to the El Niño climate pattern, the Caribbean is expected to experience drier and hotter conditions.

Senior RADA Plant Health and Food Safety Officer, Francine Webb, notes that the latest forecast from the Meteorological (Met) Service of Jamaica points to a drier-than-usual wet season, underscoring the need for farmers to prioritise conservation efforts.

“The information that we’re getting indicates that… for April, May and June, it’s going to be a little drier than the typical period going into the second wet season. It’s also likely that we may have some bouts of rain. That kind of combination is indicating that we have to conserve on water… so we have to be prepared for the different eventualities,” she told JIS News.

Webb explained that for the April to June period, the rainfall outlook indicates that western and northern parishes, including St Elizabeth, Westmoreland, Hanover, St James, Trelawny, St Ann, and St Mary, have a 40 to 45 per cent probability of receiving below-normal rainfall, compared to the average recorded over the past 30 years.

The trend is similar across southern parishes, where Manchester, Clarendon, and St Catherine face a 45 to 50 per cent probability of below-normal rainfall.

Kingston and St Andrew, St Thomas, and Portland are also expected to experience comparable conditions, with the likelihood of rainfall 45 to 50 per cent below the long-term average.

Webb noted that the drought alert and the rainfall forecast are not identical, emphasising that farmers should prepare as best as possible for the actual conditions they may face.

“In particular, for St Thomas, the Met Service is indicating that for the July, August and September period, some parishes will get higher than normal rainfall. St Thomas, [particularly] central St Thomas, is expected to get higher than normal rainfall for that period. But at the same time, the long-term drought alert is also indicating it is likely for there to be a drought watch for that same area,” the RADA officer told JIS News.

“What it means is, even though you’re going to get higher than normal rainfall for that period, it still doesn’t indicate that you’re going to be awash with rain. So, conserve the water because, remember, the temperatures are higher as well,” she added.

Webb emphasised that whatever rainfall is received will be offset by high evaporation rates.

She cautioned that central St Thomas is particularly vulnerable, with long-term forecasts from the Meteorological Service indicating a likely drought watch for the area.

Consequently, Webb stressed that it is imperative for farmers to conserve water, using it wisely and efficiently.

–       JIS