NASSAU, Bahamas (CMC) — Caribbean climatologist Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck is forecasting a quieter but potentially unpredictable Atlantic hurricane season this year, warning that even a below-average season could still bring devastating storms, dangerous flooding, drought, and extreme heat across the region.

Speaking at the 2026 Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) in The Bahamas, he said the region is likely to experience a strong El Niño pattern, which typically suppresses hurricane activity but increases heat and weather instability.

Van Meerbeeck said the 2026 season is expected to be “erratic”, with fewer storms overall but a higher risk of intense rainfall events, flash flooding and prolonged heat waves. He forecast about five hurricanes this year, including two major hurricanes, below the seasonal average.

He warned that warmer-than-normal waters in the northern Caribbean, including The Bahamas, Cuba and Jamaica, could fuel extreme weather conditions despite reduced storm activity.

The climatologist also cautioned that while the wet season may ease drought conditions in some areas, the relief may not be enough to prevent water shortages later in the year. He urged Caribbean countries to improve water storage and drought preparedness while rains are available.

Van Meerbeeck said excessive heat linked to El Niño is expected to severely affect vulnerable groups, particularly the elderly and young children, with warmer nights posing an added health risk.

He stressed that fewer hurricanes do not mean lower danger, noting that one major storm can still cause widespread destruction to crops, infrastructure, water systems, livelihoods and national economies across the Caribbean.