BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Wednesday warned of a potentially increased Atlantic Hurricane Season activity in the northern Caribbean during the three-month period leading up to the month of August.

In the latest publication of its Caribbean Climate Outlooks, CariCOF said that the period June to  August marks the first half of the Caribbean Wet Season, the Atlantic Hurricane Season, as well as the build up to the peak of the Caribbean Heat Season.

It said that an El Niño event, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is developing and strengthening.

CariCOF said this, alongside forecasted rapid warming of waters in and around the Caribbean implies a Caribbean Heat Season with heatwaves gradually ramping up, and night- and daytime temperatures possibly matching 2024 records in the northwest of the region.

It said this could also imply “potentially increased Atlantic Hurricane Season activity in the northern Caribbean; progressive, though likely slower than usual alleviation of drought impacts and wildfire risk into August in the southeastern Caribbean and slower than usual increase in rainfall frequency than in most years, although shower intensity should rise, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.”

CariCOF said that intrusions of dusty Saharan air will likely be frequent and, while over a given area, inhibit tropical cyclone activity, but exacerbate humid heat and deteriorate air quality.”

CariCOF said that severe short-term drought has developed in parts of Western Cuba, St Lucia and St Vincent and as of May 1 this year, long-term drought has occurred in Aruba and southern Belize.

Long-term drought is also evolving in St Lucia and might possible continue in Martinique and St Kitts towards the end of November this year.

Rainfall totals from June to August are unlikely to be higher than usual across The Bahamas, Belize and the Antilles, but possibly higher than usual in coastal French Guiana.

Parts of St Lucia, St Vincent will be very dry, while central and southern Bahamas, Eastern Cuba, Dominica, southwest Guadeloupe, northern interior of Guyana, Hispaniola, western Jamaica, US Caribbean territories will be very wet.