The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed a troubling reality: Jamaica’s food security is increasingly dependent on events occurring far beyond our shores.

For decades, successive governments, farmers’ organisations, and private-sector groups have encouraged Jamaicans to “Eat Jamaican”, “Buy Jamaican”, and, more recently, “Say Yes to Fresh”. These campaigns were never merely marketing slogans; they were strategic appeals aimed at strengthening national resilience by reducing dependence on imported food.

Yet an uncomfortable question remains: Are Jamaicans truly taking these messages seriously, or have we become too comfortable relying on other countries to feed us?

The question is not simply economic. It is a matter of national security.

When Jamaicans think about national security, discussions typically focus on crime, border protection, cybersecurity, and public safety. Rarely do we think about the food on our plates or the water flowing from our taps as security issues. However, a nation’s ability to reliably feed and hydrate its population may ultimately prove to be one of the most important measures of sovereignty, resilience, and stability.

Despite decades of policy initiatives and public awareness campaigns, Jamaica remains heavily dependent on imported food. Recent estimates indicate that the country’s annual food and beverage import bill exceeded US$1.3 billion in 2024, while Jamaica continues to be classified as a net food-importing developing country. This dependence leaves the island vulnerable to external shocks beyond its control, including wars, pandemics, shipping disruptions, climate-related disasters, and global inflationary pressures.

What would happen if a major geopolitical conflict severely disrupted international shipping routes for several months? What if another pandemic emerged, or a sophisticated cyberattack crippled global logistics networks? How long could Jamaica adequately feed itself?

These are no longer hypothetical questions.

Food security is not simply about having food available. It means ensuring that all citizens have reliable access to safe, nutritious, and affordable food at all times. Rising food prices in recent years have already strained many Jamaican households, particularly among vulnerable populations. Prolonged food insecurity can contribute to increased poverty, poor health outcomes, social instability, and greater pressure on government support programmes.

History has repeatedly demonstrated that food shortages and rapid increases in food prices can become catalysts for social unrest and political instability. Events in countries such as Haiti, Egypt, and Sri Lanka illustrate how resource insecurity can fuel protests, migration pressures, and social tension. No nation should assume that it is immune from such risks.

Equally concerning is the issue of water security.

Although Jamaica is often perceived as a water-rich country because of its rivers, rainfall, and mountainous terrain, recurring droughts, ageing infrastructure, watershed degradation, illegal connections, and changing rainfall patterns continue to threaten reliable access to water. The island experiences recurrent drought episodes, particularly in parishes such as Clarendon, St Elizabeth, Manchester, and sections of St Catherine. Periodically, the National Water Commission has imposed water restrictions in several communities because of prolonged dry conditions, highlighting the growing pressure on Jamaica’s water resources.

The increasing frequency of scheduled water lock-offs and supply restrictions in various communities serves as a reminder that water insecurity is not a future threat; for many Jamaicans, it is already a lived reality. These disruptions underscore the vulnerability of Jamaica’s water systems and the urgent need for sustained investment in water infrastructure and resource management.

Climate change is expected to intensify these challenges. Scientists project that the Caribbean, including Jamaica, will experience higher temperatures, more prolonged droughts, increasingly erratic rainfall patterns, and more intense hurricanes. These developments threaten not only water availability but also agricultural productivity, public health, and rural livelihoods.

Jamaica’s water infrastructure also presents a significant national challenge. Much of the country’s distribution network is ageing, resulting in substantial losses through leaks and broken pipelines. High levels of non-revenue water continue to place significant pressure on already constrained resources. Modernising water infrastructure must, therefore, be viewed not simply as a utility issue, but as a critical investment in national resilience.

Another emerging concern is the security of water infrastructure. Water treatment plants, pumping stations, reservoirs, and distribution networks constitute critical national infrastructure. These facilities may be vulnerable to natural disasters, vandalism, contamination, sabotage, or cyber-attacks targeting operational technology systems. A prolonged disruption to major water systems could have far-reaching consequences for public health, economic activity, and national stability.

Water security is also influenced by global supply chains. The treatment and distribution of potable water depend on imported chemicals, specialised equipment, spare parts, and fuel. Disruptions to international trade caused by conflict, pandemics, or shipping crises could, therefore, affect the ability of water utilities to maintain reliable and safe water services. For small island developing states such as Jamaica, strengthening water security must also include reducing vulnerabilities associated with external supply chains.

Water demand is also expected to increase in the coming decades as urbanisation expands, economic activity grows, and sectors such as tourism continue to develop. Without careful planning, conservation, and integrated water resource management, competition among households, agriculture, industry, and tourism for limited water supplies may intensify, creating additional social and economic pressures.

The relationship between food and water security is inseparable. Agriculture requires water, and without adequate water supplies, local food production becomes increasingly difficult. Without robust domestic agricultural capacity, dependence on imported food deepens. This creates a cycle of vulnerability that deserves urgent national attention.

Recognising these vulnerabilities, Jamaica has increasingly prioritised agricultural resilience and the reduction of dependence on external markets. Several strategic initiatives are currently being pursued to strengthen national food security and transform the agricultural sector.

Among them is the Government’s emphasis on climate-smart agriculture and technological innovation. Through agencies such as the Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA), farmers are being encouraged to adopt modern agricultural practices, including hydroponics, protected agriculture, and the use of drought-resistant crop varieties to improve resilience against climate-related shocks.

Agriculture contributes close to 10 per cent of Jamaica’s gross domestic product and remains a critical source of employment and livelihoods in many rural communities. Consequently, strengthening the sector is not merely an agricultural priority; it is an economic, social, and national security imperative.

Recognising this reality, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining has positioned agriculture as a foundational pillar of national development, food security, and economic stability. In pursuit of these objectives, the Government has embarked on several transformational initiatives, including major irrigation projects at Parnassus and Amity Hall, the development of Agro-Parks, and support for high-value crops such as ginger, turmeric, and nutmeg.

Digital innovation is also playing an increasingly important role. Platforms such as the Tourism Agri-Linkages Exchange (ALEX) are directly connecting farmers with the tourism sector, strengthening domestic supply chains, and expanding market opportunities for local producers.

While these initiatives represent important steps in the right direction, their long-term success will depend on sustained investment, effective implementation, and broad public support.

The question, therefore, is not whether Jamaica will face future shocks, but when. The challenge for policymakers is to ensure that these shocks do not evolve into national crises.

Building resilience will require a comprehensive and long-term national strategy. Investments in modern irrigation systems, reservoir expansion, watershed protection, climate-smart agriculture, agricultural technology, and resilient infrastructure must become national priorities. Equal emphasis must be placed on modernising water infrastructure, reducing non-revenue water losses, expanding rainwater harvesting, and protecting water systems as critical national infrastructure.

Jamaica should also critically examine whether the country maintains sufficient strategic reserves of essential food items to withstand prolonged disruptions to international trade. In an increasingly uncertain world, strategic food reserves may become as important to national resilience as fuel reserves or emergency shelters.

Equally important is public awareness. Food and water security cannot be viewed solely as government responsibilities. Citizens, businesses, communities, and institutions all have roles to play through conservation practices, sustainable consumption, reduced food waste, and greater support for locally produced goods.

National security in the 21st century extends far beyond protecting borders. It includes protecting the systems that sustain life itself. A nation that cannot reliably feed and provide water for its people risks compromising not only its resilience, but also its economic stability, sovereignty, and future prosperity.

If global supply chains were severely disrupted tomorrow, for how long could Jamaica adequately feed and supply water to its population. And if the answer is uncertain, can we truly claim to be secure?

renedicken@hotmail.com