THE Water Resources Authority (WRA) is urging farmers to prepare for worsening drought conditions by adopting more conservative irrigation practices as Jamaica continues to endure extreme heat and reduced rainfall under the influence of the El Niño weather pattern — forecast to extend into next spring.

Speaking during a Jamaica Observer Press Club at the newspaper’s St Andrew headquarters last Friday, chief hydrologist at the WRA Nia Ramsoogoon detailed that El Niño presents a twofold challenge for the island’s water resources by increasing dryness, and reducing rainfall.

The hydrologist explained that while the country is experiencing a meteorological drought, the effect on rivers, reservoirs , and ground water are not yet being felt, but she is encouraging precaution before conditions worsen.

“It’s [causing] increased evaporation — evapotranspiration because of the heat, and reduced rainfall — which we have already seen for the past few months,” said Ramsoogoon.

“Now it’s not all doom and gloom, because hydrological droughts tend to lag behind meteorological droughts,” added Ramsoogoon.

Climate services manager at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Jacqueline Spence-Hemmings, warns that the El Niño climate pattern is forecast to peak between October and December, weakening in later 2027, with no clear indication how quickly it will wane. (Photo: Naphtali Junior)

A meteorological drought, as defined by the We are Water Foundation, is purely based on atmospheric conditions, acting as the starting point for all other drought types. Hydrological droughts are the delayed ripple effect of that lack of rain, impacting visible and underground water resources over a much longer timeframe. Because of this natural progression a hydrological drought typically lags behind a meteorological drought by one to three months.

With the country anticipating lasting dry spells well into next year Ramsoogoon advised farmers to shift from flood irrigation and sprinklers to drip practices, and to refrain from tending to crops during peak heat hours each day.

In terms of what the WRA is doing to monitor the drought, Ramsoogoon told Observer editors and reporters that the agency has an extensive groundwater and surface water network throughout the island and monitors over 200 wells and 100 surface water systems.

“So we are able to, in a sense, forecast when surface water systems are going to be impacted by the meteorological drought, and we can send our bulletins to the public domain to inform of these pending river dry spells. Now groundwater is more stable than surface water, as you can imagine, but as my colleagues at NWC [National Water Commission] and the Met Service would have said, conservation is important, because while we’re not seeing an impact now, the El Niño peaks in December and then continues into spring, so we will definitely see a change in availability of water resources in that period,” she said.

Adding to the conversation, climate services manager at the Met Service Jacqueline Spence-Hemmings warned that the climate pattern, which has already pushed the island into prolonged periods of extreme heat, is forecast to peak between October and December, weakening in later 2027, with no clear indication as to how quickly it will wane.

Spence-Hemmings pointed out that discomfort among Jamaicans may be worsened due to persistent plumes of Saharan dust drifting across the Caribbean every four to five days.

“Depending on the density, you may or may not see the hazy conditions that’s usually associated with it; and with the dense plumes, that would contribute to persons complaining that it is feeling a little warmer than normal or, in this case, hotter than normal. So, of course, [with] all of these combined right now the situation is looking pretty dry and pretty hot,” said Spence Hemmings.

Ramsoogoon added that while the data collected and analysed by the WRA carries a three-month lag, historical anecdotal evidence makes her aware that farmers and Jamaicans in general must begin to prepare and conserve their water resources.

“We know that the drought, the meteorological drought, will lead to reduced rainfall, and we have that projection… So now is the time to conserve, save and protect,” she said.