JAMAICA’S bauxite and alumina export earnings are projected to rebound 24 per cent to US$760 million in 2026, despite steep first-quarter production declines and repairs from Hurricane Melissa expected to continue throughout the year.

The forecast represents a US$147.7-million increase over the US$612.3 million earned in 2025, according to the Government’s annual report on Form 18-K, filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

However, even if the forecast is achieved, earnings from Jamaica’s largest merchandise export sector would remain US$43.4 million, or 5.4 per cent, below the US$803.4 million recorded in 2024.

The projected recovery follows a difficult 2025 when total bauxite and alumina earnings declined by US$191.1 million, or 23.8 per cent. The fall was driven mainly by lower alumina prices and exports.

Alumina earnings declined 26.9 per cent to US$546.3 million in 2025, from US$747.4 million a year earlier. The average price received fell 19.7 per cent to US$385.50 per tonne, while exports declined 8.9 per cent to approximately 1.42 million tonnes.

Crude bauxite performed better. Earnings rose 18 per cent to US$66 million as the average price increased 16.7 per cent to US$38.20 per tonne. Export volumes increased 1.1 per cent to approximately 1.73 million tonnes.

Total bauxite production, however, declined 4.4 per cent to approximately 5.62 million tonnes in 2025.

The industry entered 2026 under further pressure. Alumina production fell 30.3 per cent to 267,060 tonnes during the first quarter, while crude bauxite production declined 26.4 per cent to 415,143 tonnes.

Alumina exports declined to 319,599 tonnes from 358,070 tonnes during the corresponding quarter of 2025, while crude bauxite exports fell 29.7 per cent to 384,276 tonnes.

Despite the weak start, the Government is projecting total bauxite production of approximately 6.4 million tonnes for 2026. That would represent an increase of almost 14 per cent over last year’s output.

Reaching that target will require a significant improvement during the remainder of the year as Jamalco, West Indies Alumina Company (Windalco), and Discovery Bauxite Partners continue to address damage caused by Hurricane Melissa.

The filing said repairs are expected to continue throughout 2026, while the reopening of JISCO Alpart remains uncertain. The outlook is also being complicated by rising energy costs. Bauxite mining and alumina refining require large amounts of energy, leaving producers exposed to increases in fuel and electricity prices.

The filing cited a World Bank projection for the energy price index to rise 24 per cent in 2026 amid conflict in the Middle East. Higher energy costs could reduce the benefit producers receive from stronger commodity prices.

At the same time, aluminium prices are projected to increase 21.6 per cent this year, supported by tight global supplies, production disruptions, and growing demand from emerging industries including artificial intelligence-related infrastructure.

The three-month aluminium price on the London Metal Exchange averaged US$3,194.68 per tonne during the first quarter, up 21.6 per cent from US$2,626.10 a year earlier.

Companies continued to invest despite the operational challenges. Capital expenditure in the sector totalled US$17.7 million during the first quarter of 2026, with Jamalco accounting for the largest share.

Jamalco’s projects included upgrades to its mud-washing system, turbine and air-compressor equipment, along with improvements to residue management and dry-stacking operations. The Government owns 45 per cent of Jamalco through Clarendon Alumina Production Limited, while Century Aluminum Jamaica Holdings owns the remaining 55 per cent.

Discovery Bauxite Partners resumed capital expenditure on expanding and renewing its mining fleet, while Windalco continued work on developing and maintaining haul roads.

Discovery Bauxite primarily supplies the Gramercy alumina refinery in the United States. In January, ATALCO, the parent company of the managing partner in Discovery Bauxite, announced a strategic investment partnership with US interests to support the expansion and long-term operation of the refinery.

Jamaica is estimated to have approximately 40 years of mineable bauxite reserves, although the lifespan will depend on geological conditions, technology, market prices and mining practices.