Last week the regional Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO) released the alarming results of new studies showing that nearly two in five people in Latin America and the Caribbean are living with at least one noncommunicable or injury-related neurological disorder.

In absolute numbers, 470 million people in the Americas are showing up with disorders including migraine, stroke, epilepsy, and Alzheimer’s disease, according to the study published in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, PAHO says.

While there was no breakdown on the situation in Jamaica, we should “tek sleep mark death”, as older Jamaicans are wont to say, because it is seniors who are most likely to suffer those disorders.

The study, based on estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, found that the burden of neurological disorders in the Americas is evolving, so that while age-adjusted death rates have declined since 1990, more people are surviving these conditions and living longer with disability, increasing demand for rehabilitation, long-term care, and support services.

The researchers examined 19 noncommunicable and injury-related neurological conditions across 38 countries and territories between 1990 and 2023. These included stroke, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, Parkinson’s disease, epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, autism spectrum disorders, and traumatic brain injuries.

Neurological disorders affect the brain, spinal cord, and peripheral nerves and can impair movement, memory, learning, communication, and behaviour.

In 2023, the study says, these conditions were responsible for an estimated 1.1 million deaths and 37.5 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a measure that combines years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with illness or disability. Together, they accounted for about 12 per cent of the total burden from non-communicable diseases and injuries in the Americas.

PAHO Health Metrics Specialist and lead author of the study, Mr Ramón Martínez puts it in easy to understand terms: “Today, more people are surviving neurological disorders, but they are also living longer with their consequences. Health systems must adapt to meet growing needs for rehabilitation, long-term care, and support services for people living with disability.”

Although age-standardised mortality and disease burden rates declined between 1990 and 2023, the total number of people affected continued to rise influenced by population growth and aging.

Jamaicans aged 60 and over represent about 15 per cent of the population, and those aged 65 comprise roughly 8.6 per cent of the island’s 2.84 million people. This cohort is expected to encompass up to 25 per cent of the population by 2050.

In other words, the estimates show senior numbers jumping from roughly 265,000 in 2001 toward 450,000 by 2030, and over 800,000 by 2050.

According to a 2022 Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) study, the demand for long-term care services is expected to rise as the country’s population grows older, in a context in which family sizes are shrinking and older adults are experiencing poor health and critical socio-economic vulnerability.

It doesn’t take much to see Jamaica’s name written all over this. We hope the Ministry of Health and Wellness is paying close attention.