NON-RESIDENT investors recorded a cumulative net reduction of approximately US$1.17 billion in Jamaican debt securities over the six years to December 2025, with Government obligations accounting for nearly three-quarters of the decline.

The reduction occurred in every calendar year from 2020, according to the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) latest detailed data and successive Government of Jamaica annual reports filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

But they do not answer the central question: Were foreign investors pulling back, or were the Government and local companies simply paying off debt?

The BOJ series measures transactions in Jamaica’s liabilities to non-residents, not the market value of holdings at year end. A reduction can reflect sales to Jamaican residents, repayments, or maturing debt that is not replaced. The data alone cannot show which occurred.

Non-resident holdings recorded net reductions of US$94.5 million in 2020 and US$54.5 million in 2021 before the decline accelerated to US$300.4 million in 2022. Reductions of US$185.1 million in 2023, a revised US$332 million in 2024, and a provisional US$205.3 million last year followed.

Government debt securities accounted for approximately US$872.3 million, or 74.4 per cent, of the six-year total. Securities issued by other financial corporations accounted for US$240.7 million while debt issued by deposit-taking institutions recorded a net reduction of US$58.8 million.

Much of the fall in Government debt exposure occurred during 2021 and 2022, when non-resident holdings recorded net reductions of US$251.1 million and US$320.2 million, respectively.

Since 2023other financial corporations have driven most of the decline. Their securities accounted for US$434.6 million, or approximately 60 per cent, of the US$722.4-million reduction between 2023 and 2025. Government debt represented US$221.2 million over the period.

For 2025 alone, the US$205.3-million total comprised US$108.2 million in Government securities, US$64.2 million in securities issued by other financial corporations, and US$32.9 million in debt issued by deposit-taking institutions.

The movement was not spread evenly through 2025. Non-resident debt liabilities fell by US$99.5 million during the March quarter before increasing by US$31.3 million in the June quarter and US$245.6 million in the September quarter. They then fell by US$382.6 million during the final three months of the year.

The BOJ said the December-quarter movement was driven by payments to non-resident investors, particularly holders of long-term debt securities issued by deposit-taking institutions. Repayments or maturities explain at least part of the December fall, rather than continuous selling throughout the year.

The debt movement was not matched in the equity market. Non-residents recorded approximately US$570.7 million in net equity investment between 2020 and 2025, including US$103.7 million in 2024 and US$104.5 million last year.

The only year in which non-resident equity investment fell was 2022, when it declined by US$32.7 million.

Foreign investors cut their debt exposure while remaining net buyers of local equities. The figures do not support a conclusion that they broadly withdrew from Jamaican investments.

International reserves moved in the opposite direction. Net international reserves increased from US$5.58 billion at the end of 2024 to US$6.29 billion at December 2025. The debt reduction did not coincide with a fall in the reserve stock, although reserves are affected by a much wider range of foreign currency flows.

The numbers are not settled. The Government’s 2025 annual report initially placed the reduction in non-resident debt holdings during 2024 at US$373.4 million. That figure has now been revised down by US$41.4 million to US$332 million.

The US$205.3-million estimate for 2025 remains provisional.

The filings also contain discrepancies. The 2022 report printed the 2021 debt figure as a positive US$54.5 million, although its narrative said foreign holdings of Government debt fell, and its total reconciles only if the figure was negative. The latest BOJ data show a US$54.5-million reduction.

The 2022 figures present another problem. The Government’s 2023 annual report said purchases of Jamaican equities by non-residents partly offset the decline in foreign holdings of Government debt. However, the accompanying table shows a US$32.7-million reduction in equity liabilities, matching the latest BOJ data.

The consequences depend partly on the cause. Repayment reduces the country’s external liabilities and future interest obligations. But if weaker foreign demand drove the movement, the Government and Jamaican companies could face a smaller pool of investors when they need to refinance or raise capital.

Jamaica could also become more dependent on local investors if foreign holders do not replace maturing securities.

The US$1.17-billion question is therefore not simply why foreign debt exposure fell, but whether Jamaica deliberately paid down those obligations or foreign investors chose not to maintain their exposure.