With projections from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica showing prolonged dry conditions stretching into October this year, Water, Environment and Climate Change Minister Matthew Samuda has put Jamaicans on alert for full prohibition orders for water usage, which he says will take effect on August 10 if the forecast remains unchanged or worsens.

The warning comes following a Thursday morning meeting of the Integrated Water Resources Management Council — a Cabinet subcommittee comprising all stakeholders in the water sector; academia; municipalities; and the ministries of agriculture, health and national security. That report was complemented by forecasts of the Met Service and assessments of the Water Resources Authority, according to Samuda.

Since earlier this year, nightly water restrictions and scheduled supply cuts have been implemented in vulnerable Corporate Area networks, such as Kingston 20, given the drought conditions.

Speaking during a media briefing at the Half-Way-Tree Road offices of his ministry to discuss the rainfall and drought conditions, Samuda said given the indications that there will be “a dry August, a dry September, and a dry October…it is clear and should be clear to all Jamaicans that conservation is indeed imperative at this stage”.

“We are first encouraging conservation, but being very clear that as at August 10th…if the situation has not changed — meaning if the Met Services evaluation of rainfall in July is as we suspect — that we will have continued declines in rainfall, and if the rolling three-month forecast has not changed, or has worsened, prohibition orders will come into effect,” Samuda said.

The water minister said those orders will be targeted at “irrigation and watering of gardens, lawns, grounds, and farms, filling or supplying of pools, and other things for domestic services”.

“Washing of cars, watering and washing of roadways, and any purpose that would require unusual or non-essential use of water would be prohibited,” Samuda added.

He emphasised that the announcement was not to be interpreted to mean “that the systems and the storage are at critical levels today, but the rainfall that would normally come at the end of August is not projected to be experienced”.

Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change Matthew Samuda speaking with, from left, Managing Director of the Water Resources Authority, Peter Clarke; the National Water Commission’s Acting Public Relations Manager, Delano Williams; and Principal Director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Evan Thompson during Thursday’s media briefing. (Photo: Karl Mclarty)

Pointing to the learning loss that has already resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic as well as weather events such as Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Storm Raphael, and Hurricane Melissa, the minister said every effort will be made to ensure that schools receive the support needed.

“We simply cannot afford water to contribute to learning loss in September. So we will take the measures that we absolutely need to ensure that we’re able to safeguard the opening of schools in September and not contribute to learning loss. So that needs to be understood. We do hope that the situation will change, but with the information that we have, this is the best decision that we can make at this stage,” Samuda stressed.

“We do hope that the situation will change, but with the information that we have, this is the best decision that we can make at this stage,” he added.

Speaking during the briefing, principal director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica Evan Thompson said as at the end of June the parishes of St Elizabeth, St James, St Ann, and St Mary “were determined to be experiencing drought conditions”. He said the parishes of Manchester and St Catherine “were both basically on the borderline, in that they were just about moving toward drought conditions”.

“It’s most likely that having not experienced significant rainfall during the month of July, that situation would have been worsened. We should be seeing that drought conditions at least would have extended to these two parishes. That’s what we’re expecting to pick up after the month of July has ended, as we begin to gather and collate and compare our data,” Thompson told members of the media.

He noted that the projections did not mean there would be “no rainfall” at all for the island, but that “the number of incidents of rainfall will be fewer”, influenced by the El Nino phenomenon which has caused “lesser than normal amounts of rainfall and higher than normal temperatures” over the past few months.

“However, we could have a bulk of rainfall that is intense, and so we could have very small areas that experience maybe even flooding events in small areas as these systems develop and as they continue to affect us, but generally we will experience dry conditions,” Thompson explained further.

He cautioned that with the forecast for August showing “higher-than-normal temperatures right through the month” and “lower-than-normal rainfall”, Jamaicans should be on the lookout for “climate-induced bushfires”.